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What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

200 Year Solar Cycle Prediction

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Predicting solar cycle modulation using angular momentum is relatively easy, but like any prediction it needs to be tested. Interested parties who rely on solar activity predictions might like to make a copy for future reference and compare with the regular methods of prediction which typically only go out for one cycle, which can hamper long term planning in some industries. One thing we cannot predict is solar cycle length, so this prediction is more about modulation rather than precise timing of upcoming solar cycles. One other factor in play is whether "Wilson's Law" will contribute to future grand minima, by 2190 I predict we will know the mechanics of this law. As can be seen here and on the 11000 year 14C graph there are no high solar activity peaks at times of low angular momentum. There is a possible case for a repeat of the 1870 type reduction in solar activity at 2050, but this time around the disturbance is very weak as the Jupiter/Saturn angles continue to weaken. On most occasions we are presented with 3 disturbances per cycle but in the current cycle we may only get 2, SC28 & SC29 remain the subject of more research. Below is Carl's now famous original graph showing angular momentum in a different form. The green arrows showing times of angular momentum disturbance.

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Charvatova and 2400 year solar cycle

This paper by Charvatova puts forward predictions very similar to yours, with the sun entering a 50 year period of trefoil-pattern orbit after 2085, with a consequent repeat of solar cycles 15-19. On the topic of the 2400 year solar cycle, the paper suggests that the sun will enter a 370 year period of high activity between AD2242 and AD2610, like that of the Roman Warming Period, consistent with JPL angular momentum data and your predictions of solar activity for the next 1000 years. I'm sure you've already seen it, but for everyone else it's useful stuff to read, in order to fully understand your predictions. There was another version of the paper which showed the orbit of the sun around the SSB during the recent Grand Minima and the current one and the stable period from 2085, but i can't find it again.

http://geolines.gli.cas.cz/fileadmin/volumes/volume11/G11-012.pdf

Thanks kahj, Charvatova is on

Thanks kahj, Charvatova is on the ball but curiously misses a couple of major points. She does not see  the individual unusual orbits that occur inside her disordered phase on average 3 times each 172 year average cycle not 178.8 years and is a result of Jupiter, Uranus, Neptune conjunction with Saturn opposite (Type A AMP event) that lines up with Carl's graph.

If she went back beyond the Medieval Warming Period she would also see a different type of disordered pattern when Type B AMP events take over.

You can see them yourself by plugging in the dates in Arnholm's SIM 1 solar path generator found here (free download):

http://arnholm.org/astro/sun/sc24/sim1/SolarMotion_setup_1.0-1.exe

 

 

SIM 1

Thanks for the programme/software link, it is very fun to play with! Could you please explain to me how to identify when Angular Momentum is at its highest and when the sun goes into Grand Minima using this solar motion application?

AM has 2 sides

The Suns Angular Momentum swings between its high point when Jupiter and Saturn are together and its low point when they are opposing. When Uranus & Neptune are together they add to this which creates the highest highs and the lowest lows as seen on Carls graph above. The low point has just as much power as the high (acceleration/deceleration) so in the top prediction graph I have split Carl's graph and inverted the low points.

Using the SIM 1 program you can see the outer loop is when J and S are together. Around 1980 this path is the greatest distance away from the centre because of the extra AM from U/N. At 1990 the Sun is able to return to the centre at its lowest low (zero crossing) also because of the extra AM. If you go back to around 1900 you will notice the solar path is not as extreme from the centre, nor does it return to the centre. When the disturbance happens as it is now as shown on Carl's graph the path is radically changed creating the disordered pattern where the Sun does not return to the centre. This only happens at the top of the AM wave when U/N are together. It also occurs around 1970 but is not as strong. So there are 2 phases to the AM wave, generally low AM in the trough when U/N are opposing which coincides with low solar cycles which then slowly build until the disturbance happens near the top of the wave. I think this is the general pattern that people confuse with the Gleissberg cycle which is about 90 years, difference is there are 2 types of solar slowdown with the grand minimia being the strongest when the conditions are right.

Thank You Geoff & Co.

I'm so pleased to see what you've done here.  It's frustrating that many of today's counted sunspecs are a direct reflection of the WOW factor of advancing technologies, without enough emphasis on the continuity of the record.  Excellent use of the high res pixel method.  Fantastic!  I'm very interested in the next step of Mr. Smith's "Angular Momentum" which would be how these planetary alignments affect Earth's orbit, tilt axis, magnetic energy and gravity juxtaposed with the Angular Momentum & Past/Future Solar Activity AM.  Keep up the good work!  When I get out of the arctic I will send you a donation.  I'd like you to be at the next AGU Conference!        

I'm curious as to how exactly

I'm curious as to how exactly you came up with this very detailed prediction. Whether you used past observations and/or calculations using angular momentum? I'm assuming predicting future angular momentum is relatively easy for 200 years into the future, but that predicting solar cycle modulation is more complicated, probably because the solar cycle is caused by a different mechanism, but is very strongly influenced by angular momentum.

Perhaps when the normal peak of the solar cycle lines up with the highest angular momentum from Jupiter and Saturn, then the solar activity is very high. I think we can see that from the graph, as those cyles better lined up with the angular momentum curve are generally higher, unless there has been an angular momentum disturbance and also depending on the amount of angular momentum?

Just to clarify, is it that high angular momentum causes higher solar activity, low angular momentum causes lower solar activity and angular momentum disturbances cause the proper Grand Minima?

Sorry, I've only just read

Sorry, I've only just read through this reply in detail, it contains lots of useful information and in fact answers many of the questions I have/had! I would have added questions into my comment below which are answered in this reply.

This is supposed to have gone with your comment headed: "AM has 2 sides"

What does the angular

What does the angular momentum deflection depict? The deflection is pretty clear from the plot but you dint mention why there is deflection in angular momentum at that particular point. You said describing solar cycles with angular momentum is very easy, if it isn’t too much will you care to explain how it is done. What are the variables against which the graph is plotted? Jupiter affects the solar cycle doesn’t it? Any explanations on why it does?

By deflection I assume you

By deflection I assume you mean the perturbation that occurs at the green arrows on Carl's Graph. The perturbation is a direct result of the conjunction or near conjunction of Uranus & Neptune. This information is coming out of JPL and has been cross checked. The perturbations can be quantified visually or by studying the outer 4 planet angles. Once you know the strength of each individual perturbance we can use history to predict the most likely outcome. There is one caveat, the perturbation only affects one solar cycle, at this stage it is unclear why the next cycle or indeed the one after can also be low cycles. I can speculate that the Hale cycle is overcome and one solar pole fails to reverse polarity which then takes another cycle/s to fall back into line. This has never been measured accurately but the upcoming solar max might shed some light.

Carl's Graph uses JPL data that includes solar position vectors, mass and velocity. The formula is available in my paper which can be accessed via the side menu. All 4 outer planets play a crucial role in solar AM, remove just one of them and the Sun would be in a very different place. Can I suggest you read my paper which explain most of your queries.

Regards

Geoff.

 

 

'm assuming predicting future

'm assuming predicting future angular momentum is relatively easy for 200 years into the future, but that predicting solar cycle modulation is more complicated, probably because the solar cycle is caused by a different mechanism, but is very strongly influenced by angular momentum.

REPLY: The length of the cycle looks to be controlled by other forces but the modulation is all about angular momentum. There is a new paper by Wollf & Patrone that outlines the mechanism that I will review soon.

 

Great job! I´ve been enjoying

Great job! I´ve been enjoying this site for a few days and find it very instructive and interesting. I had figure it out -as a layman- that current SC24 maximum will allow science to deepen in our Solar System Space weather best understanding, since never before in mankind had we been able to watch and study our star so deep and closely, and this might be first Grand Minima within satellite era.

Keep it on and thanks

Carlos B. (spain)

Many thanks go to Carl's brother Dave for providing the Domain, Server and Software.