question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

Yet Another Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

Ocean Sea Surface temperature anomaly for July 30 2011.

There is only one component in my mind that can stop another massive winter occurring in the Northern Hemisphere during 2011/2012. The Sun will need to come out of its slumber very quickly and start producing monthly smoothed sunspot numbers above 70. Last year I made a Northern Hemisphere prediction in July that some thought was highly unlikely " I predict the extra boost from my predicted solar grand minimum along with the  current oceanic conditions the next northern winter (2010/2011) will experience conditions similar to the Little Ice Age (1250-1850)"   

That prediction came to pass with most of the Northern Hemisphere experiencing severe cold and snow records along with massive floods along with huge cyclone Yasi smashing into Australia's north east coastline. Central England saw the second lowest temperature recorded since 1659. Already in the Southern Hemisphere, winters have been colder than normal with South America again taking a solid hit with very large snowfalls and very low temperatures. But there were some inconsistencies observed over the western Europe winter that deserves more scrutiny. During December 2011 the AO was very negative and we saw very cold temperatures in the UK as the jet stream funneled cold Arctic air over Western Europe. But that changed dramatically in January 2011 when the AO turned highly positive until about May. What was observed is important as the jet stream remained strongly contorted but now brought warmer winds from the Atlantic to Western Europe but maintained a very strong cooling presence over eastern Europe and North America. The jet stream in the Southern hemisphere showed the same characteristics, it didnt matter what shape the polar vortexes were in, the jet streams  maintained their influence by funneling polar air during respective winters. I think this phenomenon is solar induced and brought about by the increased incidence of low pressure systems in both hemispheres. I have been watching the pressure systems around Australia for the past 40 years and I cant remember a time when there was so many persistent low pressure cells that have caused monumental flooding on our continent. The higher incidence of low pressure cells along with strong high pressure cells causing the changes to the jet streams irrespective of other local weather and ocean patterns in place. The pressure changes coincide with heavily reduced solar EUV output and a lower cooler upper atmosphere.

Joe Bastardi commented on the unexpected results from the last US winter during a strong La Nina, basically the jet stream overrode the normal pattern expected which saw brutal conditions across the north east. For these reasons I expect more of the same to follow this winter but predicting which area will experience the worst conditions is difficult at this early stage. Last year everything was in place for a strong La Nina to build as well as a strong chance of a negative AO to form late autumn.

Looking at the ocean temperatures in the graphic at the head of this article the cold water "V" left over from the recent La Nina is apparent in the Pacific. There is a small warm water pool off the coast of South America and coolish water above Australia and New Guinea. The easterly trade winds have decreased but still maintain a flow across the Pacific. All this adds up to a Neutral ENSO position which could persist or go either way. The Southern Oscillation Index which records pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti is just edging towards a La Nina position so there are conflicting indicators at present. Look for a warming of the water above Australia and New Guinea before a decent La Nina will be able to form, moist warm rising air is needed over this region to feed the Walker Circulation that strengthens the trade winds which in turn raises the thermocline in the east which starts the cold water upwelling off the South America Coast.

Looking out over the coming months I am going for another La Nina to form but my confidence level is not high. The AO has been around neutral since May which leaves plenty of room to go negative as autumn rolls out. The AAO is very negative at present which is in complete contrast to last year, if it turns highly positive it will boost any La Nina that is trying to form. There could also be some extra cooling from the recent volcanic activity.

So the prediction is for another massive Northern Hemisphere winter but at this stage it is unclear who will be affected most. We will have to get used to these events for the next 20-30 years if my solar predictions pan out. The AO graph will be interesting to watch along with the ocean temperatures as the winter approaches. Now is the time to prepare for the coming winter....prices will rise.

There will be future updates to this article as the seasons progress.

Daily updated sea surface temperature anomaly.

 

UPDATE: Aug 16th.

An ominous sign of the power of the jet stream is currently being experienced by New Zealand.

"The bitterly cold southerly blast has now brought snow to most of New Zealand, closing roads, some airports and cutting power to thousands.

Snow has made roads impassable in many areas of both islands.

MetService head forecaster Peter Kreft told NZPA the polar blast was "of the order of a 50 year'' event and warned it could last for several more days.

"It's a once in many decades event. We are probably looking at something like - in terms of extent and severity, maybe 50 years,'' he said."

"The extreme conditions have been caused by opposing weather patterns, said Niwa principal scientist James Renwick.

"We've got quite a big storm that's a low pressure centre east of the country. That's come down from the North Tasman Sea and has brought quite a bit of moisture with it.

"And that's met up with a cold air stream coming from the far south, so that's cooled down that moist air and caused all the precipitation - be it rain or snow or whatever."

He said the air stream is flowing all the way from Scott Base to New Zealand around the edge of an anti-cyclone."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10745187 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10745581

The last time such an event was recorded was during the 1930's, the jet stream diagram below showing the rush of freezing air from the Antarctic.

Also of interest is the changing sea surface conditions over the Pacific equator, a tongue of cold water is forming close to Sth America with perhaps some warming above Australia. The PDO index for July has dropped suddenly to -1.86 which is substantial and adds further weight towards a solid La Nina forming. The AAO is predicted to go positive over the next few weeks and if so will add more strength to any building La Nina.

 

UPDATE: 26th Aug.

A big change in the SST's today. Overnight a colder tongue forming off Sth America with the water above New Guinea also warming suddenly, this is a similar format to May 2010 as shown in my animation.

http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/?q=node/221

The SST's of the northern Pacific in deep cold PDO mode, has the hot area in the central northern Pacific been flowing towards New Guinea to strengthen the Walker Cycle? Perhaps one case of the PDO driving ENSO?

UPDATE: 7th Sept.

The NOAA ENSO forecast is now showing a high likelihood of a strong La Nina forming later this year. Of interest is the future diagrams showing increased warming over the western pacific which will be interesting to compare at a later date. The sub surface temperature graphics showing the cool area now near the surface in the east with a large body of warm water in the west not yet near the surface. If this body rises to the surface there will be an impact on the Walker circulation pump. Click on the images for a full size view.

 

There is also a big jet stream from Antarctica about to hit Australia that will be worth following. More details to follow.

 

Click on the pic for up to date jet stream position and forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I

 

UPDATE: 10th Feb.

The northern hemisphere winter was patchy through December and January but has now come on in full force. The Great Freeze of 2012 has made world news with unfortunately many deaths and hardship. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) turned negative at the end of January which heralded the onslaught to come. I have put together a list on metrics that show the breakdown of events and how this phenomenon plays out.

Click on the images for a full size view

Great Winter Freeze of 2012 Metrics  
QBO diagram taken from the University of Berlin. The darker area is the westerly flow and the white area is the easterly flow. The break up of the northern polar vortex is the key to realizing a neg. AO. It is thought planetary waves traveling up from the equator to the pole is fundamental for this process.  An easterly QBO encourages this process, which can be seen to be developing at higher altitudes.
  Upper Stratospheric zonal winds show a sharp decline at the end of January. Baldwin et al and others suggest this is one factor required for the intrusion of the planetary wave to the polar regions. This metric showing the easterly phase of the QBO kicking in. Note: QBO easterlies are stronger during low solar output.
  Upper Stratospheric temperatures have shown an overall cooling which is perhaps unexpected but when looking at the spatial patterns (next) there are also warm areas that are the signature of a collapsing polar vortex.
  Upper Stratospheric temperatures shown in a different format show the distribution of temperature across the pole. Notice the warm area is over Europe. The temperature spatial patterns align with the ozone spatial zones.
  Upper Stratospheric polar ozone mixing ratio plots showing a distribution bias away from Europe. The higher ozone quantities are possibly from 2 sources. Low solar activity promotes less NOx activity which destroys ozone at higher levels, and ozone from lower levels is transported via the now productive planetary waves.
  The all important northern hemisphere vortex graph along with the AO position showing the sudden weakening of the polar vortex (red) in January. Notice the slight lag in timing of the AO index. A negative AO changes pressure patterns at higher latitudes which influence the shape of the jet stream.
  The end result felt at the surface. The negative AO changing the shape of the jet stream that now favors central and western Europe. Cold Arctic air is drawn down over Europe. Nearly all severe global weather events of the past few years are aligned with a jet stream climate forcing. The position of the AO and AAO in the south determining which part of the globe is affected.

Comments

I'm so fed up with the

I'm so fed up with the recent, rather extended run of cool, dull and quite wet summers here in Britain, another cold winter would spice things up very nicely to be honest!

The dice might just fall your

The dice might just fall your way, but they are loaded, so you have better than average odds.

SSN is at an imaginary 25

SSN is at an imaginary 25 with no real sunspots in sight. Is the solar cycle 24 over?

Yes all the signs are now

Yes all the signs are now pointing towards La Nina. The comparison of the two graphs showing the warming above Australia and the cool water forming off the Sth America coast. If it continues to form I will post an animation of the SST's.

The Sun is also behaving badly, so much energy a week or so ago and now nothing. The Sun is having trouble "keeping it up".

BOM ENSO update is available

BOM ENSO update is available from the Australian site today and they are still calling it neutral. The SOI data is 1 month old with the sub surface at least 2 weeks old so there could be more in the pipeline perhaps.

"The tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral, although ocean temperatures have continued to cool over the past fortnight. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains neutral but moderately positive, and the trade winds are slightly stronger than normal. Despite this cooling, current indicators remain well short of the strong La Niña conditions evident at the equivalent time last year.

The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the southern spring, While no models suggest El Niño conditions are likely, two of the eight models predict further cooling over the coming season and into the southern summer."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

There's only one thing that

There's only one thing that will save us.  China, Germany, the US, and the UK need to crank up the coal-fired plants and maximize CO2 output.  I suggest offering heavily discounted or free coal-generated power to all. 

Low solar activity is having

Low solar activity is having a very immediate effect here in UK/Europe with cold winters and cooler, wetter summers, but it seems that the planet as a whole has not really been affected. Global temperatures for a start have been surprisingly high even though solar activity has nose dived, and it doesn't seem like the 2010 El Nino was really that strong when compared to the 1998 Super El Nino when global temperatures were just a fraction higher. What's going on? Perhaps it is carbon dioxide, or is it a lag response, or to do with some other ocean cycle... any thoughts? Thanks.

Here is a link to Roy Spencer's website showing global temperatures: http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Global temps may not be a

Global temps may not be a reliable metric during the early stages of a grand minimum type period. The initial cooling can be localized and is more related to the pressure cell changes that bend polar air, but these changes can also influence blocking highs like we saw over Russia etc. Past proxy temperature records can also be localized making a direct comparison difficult. Over time I think reduced TSI and EUV will gradually drop overall world temps thru reduced ocean heat uptake and cloud cover influence, but perhaps only a drop of around 1 deg C. This grand minimum if it occurs is not overly strong and cannot be compared with a Maunder type event, there is probably a small man made component that might buffer a small part of the temperature reduction.

The 2010 El Nino was reasonably strong and was also present for an extended period. Of note was the brutal winter experienced during that time in the UK.

Thanks for letting me join

Thanks for letting me join your sight! I live in Rhodes - Greece and we havent seen a "real" winter here since 2007.. but hopefully the comming one will make up for all the previous. Do we have any news about the La Nina state and forecast, and please tell me, can we really count on a good winter for this year in our area? Thanks

REPLY: You may have been fortunate in your position in relation to the jet stream over the past few winters, it can be a dice throw for some regions. The Australian BOM updated yesterday noting that the trade winds are strengthening and a pool of cold water is building near Sth America. The SOI has dropped back to neutral position along with the cloud cover at the dateline, so the BOM are still sticking with a neutral position. The water over New Guinea has not really warmed over the past weeks which I think maybe required before a strong La Nina can build...lets watch this area and see what unfolds.

Thank you, I usually hold a

Thank you,

I usually hold a small basket, but the cooling of the plannet is irreversible, and it will happen in the near future..

In our region, Its usually the case that the winter comes too late, february - march, because we are at the most south east part of europe, I suppose?, but I hope this winter gives us a full-scale cold wave with a long lasting effect, that will eliminate some unusual phenomena like... winter mosquitoes

Well, as you said earlier, we

Well, as you said earlier, we better fasten the seatbelts!..... and just wait for the coldest of em all! ! !

 

Given the fact it looks like

Given the fact it looks like another strong La Nina may be underway, does that mean another great snow/rainfall year for California? And will Winter likely to begin early like October or November?

REPLY: Normally you would expect drier conditions in California during a La Nina going on the average. Last years conditions I think were more controlled by the jet stream patterns influenced mainly by the differing pressure pattern changes that work in with the normal jet stream patterns brought about by La Nina. These conditions are unusual and are catching out some of the experieinced weather forecasters. An early winter is certainly on the cards.

Kamau K. Canton

Now that NOAA has

Now that NOAA has officially announced another strong La Nina is in the making and that the AAO is also starting to go positive, which is what was happening this time last year, it appears that the west coast will be in for another good solid wet year. Would you agree? Also, I noticed a body of warm water is starting to appear in the western pacific which should impact our upcoming rainny/snow season for the west coast? Should skiers and water resource managers start getting excited?  

Kamau K. Canton

There is still a way to go

There is still a way to go before this season can be called in regard to ENSO, the SOI is still neutral and the warm water has still to form in the west pacific. We are several months behind the position of last year but there is still plenty of time for a solid La Nina to form, but either way I still think the jet stream will rule.

A positive AAO can only help bring on a stronger La Nina, the MJO is also playing the game right now.

Thanks Greg, your local

Thanks Greg, your local northern hemisphere reports are valuable. In our hemisphere we have just witnessed a sudden cooling in the sth east of OZ which interrupted a warm start to spring. A polar blast inspired by a bending jet stream dumped snow down to 600 metres in our southern state of Tasmania. Also further north our Queensland BOM today predicts the coming summer will be not as severe as last year, which looks to be based on the comparison of the ENSO state compared to last year. I fear they might have jumped too early.

Hi Geoff, What are your

Hi Geoff,

What are your thoughts about the upcoming Fall and Winter season for California and the West Coast? 1. Given the fact La Nina is cranking up out in the Pacific ocean again, will that eventually portend an early winter start for the Sierra/Nevada? 2.Are we likely to experience another great rain/snow year ahead? 3. Will there be a +AAO(Atlantic Atmospheric Oscillation) or -AAO.

 

 

Kamau K. Canton

Hi, the La Nina is still out

Hi, the La Nina is still out to lunch but the bill might be rising. The SOI values are still neutral as published today by the Australian BOM, and the required warming in the West is still not happening. I would not rule out a sudden change towards a strong La Nina and suspect it will occur, but as yet it is not happening. That said my thoughts suggest the ocean and atmospheric trends will play a smaller role with the  jet stream forces being the main player. Its difficult to predict which regions will suffer most from jet stream effects but your region has more probability of repeating last years results.

The La Nina continues to

The La Nina continues to build according to the Australian BOM today. Of interest is the sub surface temperatures east of the dateline are 4 deg lower than normal, this is a similar position to last year. The trade winds have also strengthened but the required pool of warm water above New Guinea is still not warm enough to drive a deep La Nina. This of course can change very quickly as we saw in the last strong La Nina.

The PDO is now firmly in negative territory with the August value coming in at -1.76.

The latest NCEP forecast for

The latest NCEP forecast for ENSO is looking dire if they are correct. The warm water is starting to build over New Guinea so perhaps they are right??

NOAA is also predicting the AAO to go further positive which will also deepen the current building La NIna. The AO is now interesting to watch as it affects the position of the northern jet stream.

 

In light of ths new

In light of ths new development and trend for this La Nina, will California likely to experience high snow/rainfall(Above avg) for this upcoming winter? We already have above avg snow and rainfall from storms earlier this month; however, it looks like we are back into a dry/warm weather trend for the next couple of weeks or so because there is a splitting flow in the current jet stream pattern. Will the consolidation of the polar jet stream will eventually start taking place, perhaps sometime in November? If so, will the stormy pattern likely continue well into the Spring months like last year? 

Kamau K. Canton

California is likely to see a

California is likely to see a repeat of last year if the current trends continue, the jet streams should provide more southerly storms which is unusual for typical La Nina winter weather in California. It is difficult to be precise over shorter time frames as the jet stream positions are influenced by pressure cells that are in turn influenced by the state of the AO and NAO. The UK and western Europe will also be interesting to watch as to how the jet stream patterns play out in conjunction with the AO/NAO. This will be something I will be reporting on this season.

Yes the same pool of warm

Yes the same pool of warm water grew rapidly during the last La Nina just before it really took hold. Warm water and lower pressure over New Guinea and Asia creates an uplift of warm air that travels along the higher altitude of the equator towards Sth America. It then descends closer to Sth America in a high pressure cell and then blows along the equator back towards New Guinea. This is the origin of the strong trade winds that Walker discovered that is associated with La NIna, the stronger winds and

the pressure cells that work with it, tilt the underlying thermocline or cold water plane that emerges near Sth America and then moves across the Pacific. Some people think the important warm water pool that initiates the Walker Circulation is a left over from a previous El Nino, but I think we are going to see this theory falsified this time around if we are lucky.

 

I suspect the PDO will possibly play a part in this scenario to load the warm water pool. A cool PDO by definition has warm water just off the Japanese coast, perhaps some of this will flow south? time will tell.

There is a very good chance of another massive winter for the northern hemisphere but it maybe in selected areas and time frames.

The PDO is measured by the

The PDO is measured by the spatial patterns in the north pacific, when the area near Japan is warm and the North American coast is cool that is the cool phase and vice versa. I think the cool PDO lines up with more LA NIna because of the warm water off Japan but there are times when La Nina leads the PDO cool phase spatial pattern, so its not all simple.

There is no solid data on what drives the PDO although some say the ENSO state is responsible, but I see very weak evidence in that area. Scafetta shows a solar trend that matches the PDO which may turn out to be correct. The AMO could possibly be influenced by the PDO with a lag factor in place brought about by the slow rate of the currents that may transport temperature change to the Atlantic....but this is just speculation.

It may be too early to suggest the AMO is going to remain negative but if it does over the next few years it will have an effect on climate. But maybe not as expected in some areas as I have read the AO and NAO tend to be more negative when the PDO is negative and the AMO is positive. My thoughts are that all this goes out the window during a solar grand minimum and the weather patterns we may be used to when considering ENSO and other oscillations may behave quite different because of the jet stream changes.

Now, I also remember last

Now, I also remember last year at this time going into November the AO/NAO, PDO were negative which was key for tthe record snowfall in the Sierra's(50ft+). Is there a -AO/NAO occuring yet over the Hudson Bay or the Greenland areas?  I've read from a historical perspective that it is pretty rare to have back to back heavy weather, especially with a La Nina pattern, which typically brings a more drier Winter, more so in So. Cal. However, I enjoyed the unusual heavy storms last year in California and hope we get more this upcoming winter. 

Kamau K. Canton

Furthermore, the weather in

Furthermore, the weather in California is currently very nice. It does not seem like any storms will be coming our way anytime soon. I'm sure with continued strengthening of La Nina, this pattern will soon change. What are your thoughts?

REPLY: It is still early, the patterns from last year should revisit, but the loading is different so the timing will also be different. The currently positive AO might give California an early blast when coupled with the cold jet stream.

Kamau K. Canton

  I have a question, not an

 

I have a question, not an answer even though it may seem so at first, please give me your thoughts.

I am not a scientest, only an engineer.  I work with heat in industry.  Heating tanks and computing their heat loss is a good part of my work.  One of the considerations that really makes a difference is heat loss due to evaporation.  Even with little or no air flow there is still considerable evaporation/heat loss.  If the airspeed picks up then there is considerably more evaporation, at least in uncovered tanks.

 Evaporation in and by itself transfers heat from oceans to the atmosphere in the form of energetic vapor which eventually heats the air.  Then energetic vapor molecules eventually transfer their heat and become droplets.   As the air is moving, it carries the heat and the droplets away from the area of evaporation.  I can see how this could indeed contribute to a cold pool in any area of the oceans.  Evaporation moves a lot of heat.  I have never tried to calculate it for a large area in a sea, I think it would not be too terribly difficult to do, I am nearly sure that it has already been done.

My question, if the jet stream moves from normal locations and causes more air movement on the ground, or I should say at sea level, what is the effect on the ocean temperature?  What about the carried away heat?  Where does it go?  If we have more cloud cover because of reduced magnetic field and we have more moisture and heat being carried away from the oceans which mean even more clouds, doesn't that mean less solar warming and more rain?  I don't mean to over simplify all this but it seems there has to be someone who has already considered this and come up with a way to quantify all this.

By the way, I love this site, I check it first thing in the morning.  When there is nothing new my day is ruined. :)

Jakraig

You're right! The

You're right! The positive SOI is very significant because I remember that's how it was this time last year! Therefore, at some point down the road there should be a weather pattern change. 

Kamau K. Canton

Thanks for your question

Thanks for your question jakraig, the subject of overall heat balance and positive/negative feedbacks is a hot one right now. I think it may take several more years before any headway is made which will most likely show the incompleteness of the flawed IPCC models. The low solar influences on our climate will be understood which I expect to show a gradual somewhat minimal effect on climate but when coupled with the natural ocean cycles (PDO etc) will compound to a much higher level.

The jet streams will be in force again this winter with perhaps more looking at the underlying causes. EUV looks to be in the box seat but this area is still not understood. I am not sure the changing jet streams are a driver of ocean cycles as what we are seeing now has not happened for at least 100 years and maybe 200 years. The ocean cycles tend to work in 30 year negative then 30 year positive. Also the ENSO state for the NH winter is set up in the NH summer and autumn which is not really influenced by the jet stream which forms in the NH winter.

The fortnightly BOM ENSO

The fortnightly BOM ENSO report has been released showing a strengthening of trade winds across the Pacific. The BOM is still predicting a weaker event than last year although other models are leaving the door open for a much larger event. I think the stage is still set for a possible late strong forming La Nina.

Great to see the NH season

Great to see the NH season starting early and thanks for your updates Greg. The AO is in a similar position as last Jan/Feb which should favour your part of the world for little ice age type weather for now. This will be something interesting to watch this season as the AO positions the jet stream. The SST anomaly diagram continues to suggest a strengthening La Nina.

Are there any signs that the

Are there any signs that the AO will remain in its positive or negative phase through the northern hemisphere winter?

REPLY: It is unlikely the AO will stay in either phase for the duration of winter. If the AO goes deeply negative there is more chance of even more severe weather which should affect western Europe more than other areas. Some suggest gravity waves and the QBO may have an influence on the state on the NH polar vortex which is tied into the AO position, trying to predict in advance is difficult but this area will be interesting to watch this season.

Kamau K. Canton

NOAA's latest view on the

NOAA's latest view on the state of the Pacific. Thanks to reader Dave for the pic. Click the the pic for a full size view.

NOAA La Nina story HERE.

La Nina conditions are

La Nina conditions are picking up with the warm pool above New Guinea building and the cold tongue developing off Sth America gaining strength. There is a deep low pressure off the coast of Japan with that area also having a large warm pool as is typical in cool PDO periods. The prevailing winds from the low pressure are pushing the warmer water to the south which is solid evidence for one case of the PDO driving the ENSO state.

The Australian BOM ENSO update should show a strengthening of the trade winds across the equator on Wednesday.

The BOM fortnightly ENSO

The BOM fortnightly ENSO update is available and the predictable increase in trade winds has occurred. But they are still predicting a La NIna event weaker than last year. I am still betting on the warm pool and expect a further deepening of the current La Nina state. The AAO is negative at present which is not helping but NOAA is predicting a turn around shortly.

I wonder if you can actually get odds on future ENSO states?

Meanwhile the NH is experiencing early snows and some record breaking events...I can recommend iceagenow.com for a reliable daily update on extreme NH winter events.

I noticed that the La Nina

I noticed that the La Nina pattern and the Atmospheric conditions are getting in gear for a similar pattern as to last year. It seems that the pattern relatively mild pattern for the west coast is about to change late next weekend with the first major winter rain/snowstorm beginning about Fri or Sat. Noticed  several key factors for the start of the real winter season for us. 1. -AAM, 2. -PDO, 3. -AO/NAO(starting to become more apparent), 4. low sunspot min,  5.Of course the continued strengthening of the La Nina weather pattern out in the Pacific. So is my analysis/observations fairly accurate that this could be the start or set up of the winter weather pattern change to bring heavy weather to the Sierra Nevada range for the upcoming Winter and possibly Spring seasons? 

REPLY: All indications are set for a repeat of last year, the only thing that might vary is the scale of the NH event. This is in the making right now and is not really known, but the indicators suggest a medium to strong La Nina in the pipeline with the jet stream activity looking to be little different from last year.

Kamau K. Canton

When you mean the activity of

When you mean the activity of the jet stream be "little different from last year" do you mean that the polar jet stream could be more or less active compared to last year? I know when the polar jet was very active last year that is when the Sierra's got the most snow. We also have the MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation) or tropical forcing from the western pacific that should be playing a role too. Although I don't know how much, but only time will tell. Perhaps, it will also play a significant role during the winter season.   

REPLY: Current indications show that the jet stream is functioning very similar to last year. There has been some increase in solar activity that may have some future impact on the pressure cells that control the jet stream, but so far that is not happening. The current EUV values are still considered very low with EUV being a possible cause to the changing pressure cell patterns we witness today.

Kamau K. Canton

The October PDO value is in

The October PDO value is in at -1.34 which is a slight rise on the previous 3 months but still well into negative territory.

This friday the forecast

This friday the forecast looks good for prevailing winds around a developing high pressure cell to direct warm water from the PDO cool phase warm pool to the important area over New Guinea. Keep an eye out for changes in the up coming SST map.

I have been noticing there

I have been noticing there has been a split flow pattern going on for the past several weeks in the western hemisphere. Makes me little nervous about the upcoming winter for the west coast in terms of lots of rain/snow. This type of pattern usually breaks up the storms and then weakens them when they approach the coast. This is opposite of what happened this  time last year when we were getting hammered by storms early which turned out to be a wet La Nina pattern. I know it's too early to tell for sure, but so far this La Nina pattern seems to be very similar to the 2008-2009 event when I remember of us having a split flow pattern that developed during Nov/Dec of that year and continued throughout the rest of the season. We have been experiencing lots of cold weather instead.What's your thoughts at this time?  

REPLY: Split flow patterns seem to be more prevalent in your part of the world in neutral to El Nino type conditions. Right now the ENSO state is close to where we were in 2008-2009 but I think the outlook is for a further deepening of La NIna as the conditions over New Guinea continue to improve. The current jet stream positions are favoring colder conditions over the eastern states of the US but that could easily change in the near term.

Kamau K. Canton

In fact, you are right that

In fact, you are right that split flows are more common during Neutral/El Nino winters; therefore, since there are indications that the current La Nina will continue to strengthen then it doesn't necessarily mean the current split flow weather pattern is any suggestion that it will continue in the long term, right? The jet streams should eventually consolidate to give the west coast another bonified or solid winter, we just have to continue to be patient, correct? 

REPLY: Yes we need to see how it all pans out this winter, but the indicators I use are pointing towards a deeping of the La Nina and a backing from the jet stream, with today's SST map looking very encouraging. The AO is still hovering around neutral which has potential to change rapidly, and the AAO is the same. Certainly not boring right now.

Kamau K. Canton

The warm pool over New Guinea

The warm pool over New Guinea continues to build while the daily SOI shows very strong positive values. The AO has gone strongly positive which if we go on last year should provide some warmth to the UK region and severe cold over Canada and the USA. This looks to be the pattern of the predicted jet streams, Nth America to be hit in about 4 days, California could also experience the power of the jet stream.

Sounds like in just a short

Sounds like in just a short while, California and the Sierra's should start seeing big storms that will get the snows/rains going. We just have to be patient. I'm thinking sometime around the mid or latter part of December?? Meanwhile, we better enjoy the relatively calm weather here while we still can.

Kamau K. Canton

California has been in a very

California has been in a very dry pattern so far for awhile. It's almost like we are in a weak El Nino/La Nina pattern lately. The ridge of high pressure has been shunting all of the storms well to the north of us for much of this Fall. I also noticed that the AO/NAO has been in its strongly positive phase which often favors high pressure ridges on the West Coast. This time last year the AO/NAO was in its negative phase and stayed that way all Winter and got record rain/snowfall. Based on the jet stream animation above, as we approach the Winter season, will the pattern significantly change for stormy weather very soon and once it does, due to the increase in the strength of the current La Nina ocean current, will the storms continue for the rest of the Winter into the Spring months or will this after all be a boring dry year for us? 

REPLY: Last year the AO/NAO was strongly negative in Dec but then in Jan went fairly strongly positive which it maintained for several months. So current conditions are more like January last year but of course winter has just started. The big winds you had yesterday are a sign of what to expect regarding the jet stream. The La Nina is still looking to go stronger.

Kamau K. Canton

So there is hope, especially

So there is hope, especially since its so early in the season. You're right about the position of the AO/NAO this time last year because we were very wet, then I remember that we had a six week dry spell from early Jan to about the second week of Feb and then we had pouring rain/heavy snowfall in the Sierra's which lasted all the way to June. It has been very, very windy here so it makes sense to me that it is one of the key signs that the jet stream is transitioning and will eventually break through and bring us the winter storms.

Kamau K. Canton

The AO today exceeding

The AO today exceeding positive 5, this is certainly above average and will have consequences. The jet stream on the Pacific American coast is looking to create some havoc in the next week.

Given the fact that the AO is

Given the fact that the AO is so positive 5+ and that I learned tody that there is solar flare up in the sun, does that actually mean a dryer year for the West Coast in California? Usually when the opposite is true, like last year, we have more west coast storms. But, it has been very quite so far this year, where places like Mammoth Mountain has to make their own snow. What are your thoughts about this new +AO/NAO trend?  Or, is the current dry weather pattern here is about to break and  we need to prepare for a Winter Wallop after all?

REPLY: The solar flare was not anything large and is a regular occurrence even during low activity that probably has no immediate affect on weather. The positive AO will most likely continue to channel the jet stream in your direction, so lets see how it pans out. We cannot use the weather system information gathered over the last 100 years to predict our current weather situation.

Kamau K. Canton

The Australian BOM report

The Australian BOM report also shows a marked entry into a deeper La Nina. Our BOM reports tend to be more conservative than others but the change in conditions apparent. The Warm pool over New guinea continues to look favorable for a further deepening of La Nina along will prevailing winds moving the warm water out of the hot pool near Japan. The Hot pool necessary for a cool PDO. This year we have an obvious example of how the PDO can direct ENSO, sometimes a previous El Nino can start a La Nina or the hot pool can also load the Walker pump. Years spent in a warm PDO (cold pool off Japan) cannot feed a la NIna, this is why there are no real back to back La Nina during a warm PDO. I think we have a very good chance of a stronger La Nina to come, if the AO/NOA flips from it positive state expect an even bigger hit this NH winter.

Jet stream blasts Scotland

Jet stream blasts Scotland and Northern UK. The jet stream has been favourable to the UK region recently but it is capable of unleashing northern fury even with a positive AO index. Some parts of the western USA sea board are also likely to see some jet stream action over the coming days.

The PDO is driving ENSO this

The PDO is driving ENSO this year, some say it cant happen. The PDO has been way ahead of the ENSO trend if comparing the data, and we have seen the warm pool from the cold PDO drive this La Nina to greater depths with more to come. Almost all indicators are pushing for a further deepening of La NIna, the PDO is in prime position, the SOI has been building towards a stronger La Nina, the AAO is now positive which will assist the trade winds to blow stronger as we have seen in other large La Nina's. Does anyone have info on the current state of the MJO and how it is affecting ENSO?

Below is a graph of the PDO values unsmoothed, the trend is clear.

But the AO is still positive in the north which is interesting, there is data that suggests the deepest negative AO's occur when the PDO is negative and the AMO is positive. The AMO as Greg states is heading negative, I am not sure this AMO movement is conducive to colder temps just yet, but still think the jet streams will be the major controller this year,.

UK blizzard on the way if we

UK blizzard on the way if we go by the predicted jet stream pattern, a big storm is expected in the next 24 hours but I think a week later might be bigger. This is very different to last year when the AO was positive last January. The AO is positive now but the timing of the season may be responsible for some of the unexpected early jet stream action over the UK and Europe. Russia doesn't make the news much, but their temps are also very low with fairly constant northerlies heading from the Arctic.

Check out the predicted patterns HERE.

It is a good thing that

It is a good thing that Global Cooling is only a Northern Hemisphere problem:

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16133817

 

Merry Christmas

Jakraig

Our BOM ENSO update is out

Our BOM ENSO update is out today. Surprisingly they predict the La Nina is at its peak and should decline from now. But they also notice the SOI has increased substantially along with an increase in the trade wind strength. I think the conditions suggest a further deepening of La Nina with the warm pool now starting to load cyclone (hurricane) conditions over our top end. The lower parts of the USA have just experienced a winter blast and I am waiting to see how the strong jet stream affects the UK and Europe.

NOAA 10 day Arctic vortex

NOAA 10 day Arctic vortex prediction looks encouraging for those hoping for a negative AO future.

The expected jet stream action over the UK fizzled somewhat as the main flow ended up skirting around the UK and dropping down in Europe. But there is some chance of blizzard conditions for the UK in the next week if the predicted patterns hold true. The USA lower states meanwhile copping a hiding showing how difficult it is to predict the pattern of the jet streams.

So far, we are in a very,

So far, we are in a very, very dry pattern for the start of the winter season. No real natural snow in the Sierra's. There doesn't seem to be a real pattern change anytime soon. Moreover, the month of December will be going down as one of the driest December's on record.  This is making me a little nervous. Based on the current patterns, could this be the trend for rest of winter? 

REPLY: There is one golden rule that applies to the jet stream (which is your only possible savior this winter). Anything can happen.

Kamau K. Canton

SOI hits +23 for Dec  but the

SOI hits +23 for Dec  but the Australian BOM continues to undersell the current La Nina. Sub surface temps show -4 anomalies while the important warm pool remains strong. I think there is still a high chance of a further deepening of this La Nina. Meanwhile the AO stubbornly remains above neutral for now.

Some signs are appearing for

Some signs are appearing for a break up of the norther polar vortex. The 10 day predictions are showing a high pressure cell forming in the Arctic which splits the vortex...time will tell. There is also signs of the zonal wind increasing and ozone changes in the stratosphere along with the QBO entering its easterly phase. This should all assist a possible negative AO/NOA.

Europe and Texas is

Europe and Texas is experiencing record snow fall (iceage.info) along with some record cold records broken here in Australia. The jet stream is a fickle merchant during solar downturns. The jet stream over Australia today and yesterday delivered record cold and snow directly from Antarctica to 4 states with -4C recorded in our higher regions in NSW.....not bad for mid summer

The tide is turning for regions in the northern hemisphere that have so far been warm and dry. The QBO has been a large factor this NH winter.

The AO index is starting to

The AO index is starting to show signs of some negative strength. Some of the forecasts predict this trend may ease but I think the QBO position which has been holding back the AO this NH winter is now starting to play ball. The NH winter so far has been tough in some sections and warm in others. Down south in Oz, summer has been been cool and wet mostly,  with Western Australia being the exception. The next month might have some surprises in store, western Europe and the west coast of the USA might see a reversal.

The weather has started to

The weather has started to turn cold here in the UK, incidentally just as solar activity has taken a dive. Some are predicting a cold February and the blocking high pressure over Russia looks like its establishing itself over us. Will be interesting to see.

 

REPLY: I think the slowing solar activity is just coincidental perhaps, larger solar changes would be required to see any weather effect...the AO that is now going negative, is more likely to be the main player for your part of the world.

The was wondering if the

The was wondering if the recent solar event and subsequent aurora may have thermally influenced the atmosphere below it  with a gentle nudge to provide a little flexure in the upper jet stream flow?  Is such a thing possible?

I do believe we have been

I do believe we have been having a massive winter in the northern hemisphere.  Fortunately for the lower 48 states this winter has been very mild.  All the cold has been locked up in Canada and the arctic.  We can thank the persistent thermal conditions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific for that.  Apparently it has kept the jet stream linear since the fall.  No blocking.  That has created an illusion to many of a not so massive winter, and for the vast population of the US it's seems true.  The link below paints a picture contrary to condition expected with global warming.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2023

Thank you jjheilman for your

Thank you jjheilman for your question and comments. There is direct evidence that auroral events through EPP (Energetic Particle Precipitation) generate high levels of nitric oxide in the upper atmosphere, which can travel down to destroy ozone at lower levels. These events are usually short in nature so the impact may not be large and the main effect would be over the northern pole. It is difficult to track which ozone zones may be affected and consequently how this may impact on the polar vortex etc, but this area of science is attracting more attention.

The jet stream is showing some signs of changing weather patterns over the parts of the USA that have so far enjoyed a milder winter. How long the AO will remain negative continues to be the issue.

 

 

So Very, Very Cold In Alaska

So Very, Very Cold In Alaska For January-Impressive Records

The winter in Connecticut and indeed most of the lower 48 states has been amazingly mild, so far, with the exception of the October 2011 snow storm.  It gives the impression of a not so massive winter, to many who are enjoying it.   As you mentioned, Poland is being hit with severe cold, and it gets considerably worse heading east.   This link  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/clark/so-very-very-cold-in-alaska-for-januaryimpressive-records/61043 from accuweather.com highlights the severe conditions in Alaska for January, 2012.

I find of interest that this level of cold exists at the same time there is so much warmth trapped to the south, at least across the contiguous U.S.  To me, this could only happen, if the earth, globally were beginning to cool down. 

The NAO, PDO, and the AO have a well established historical data base tied to modeling the weather.  This winter, the models for weather forecasts beyond 5 days have been poor. 7 to 10 days very poor and beyond that, one blogger described them as in fairy land.  The very anomalous conditions of the current atmosphere, creates new sets of conditions historical records fail to relate to.  When nothing in the past matches the present, the models ability to predict the future fails.  This too says to me that the foundation upon which the long range weather models were built, the era of solar ramp-up has turned the corner.  The enormous storage of thermal energy in the oceans needs decades to dissipate, and its affecting global weather.  The thermal turnabout should exhibit more frequent and intense storms, and this too is decadal.  

 

 

A massive NH winter probably

A massive NH winter probably can't happen over the whole hemisphere at once. There has been big events in Europe, Japan, Alaska and some parts of the USA. The jet stream and AO are now in a different position (which hopefully hangs around) which will show the other side of the coin. The westerly QBO last year has been stronger than anticipated which delayed the onset on a neg AO, there has been a fight going on in the stratosphere that is now pointing towards favorable conditions for a neg AO, there is still time for other  NH regions to experience the power. Solar output is also showing a downward trend which can only help if maintained. The La Nina pattern is holding but must weaken soon, I would not be surprised if we get a triple back to back La Nina next year, the PDO position is still strong. The warm pool off Japan will be interesting to watch.

"The great winter freeze of

"The great winter freeze of 2012" is what the media is already calling the extreme conditions experienced in a lot of the NH. The season I think has earned the "Massive" tag.

January 2012 was the second

January 2012 was the second coldest January globally since 1993

AccuWeather.com blogs posted this Satellite verdict and concluded with the warmth here in the us....

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/satellite-verdict-is-in-on-jan/61300

I just cannot seem to wrap my head around understanding how in the midst of unaltered human activity being the cause of this crescendo in global warming and climate change, that there can be so many major anomalous cold outbreaks.   I am sure there will be a plausible explanation very soon.

The global conditions are all about extremes.   The oceans, the main source of stored thermal  energy and its distribution have been building in thermal energy for centuries, with the last 50+ years being  historically way above average.  Now the conditions of thermal input have reversed most significantly.

We currently have significant cooling of the atmosphere in contrast to the warmest oceans and subsequent moisture laden atmosphere that the earth  has experienced within human history.   I believe both the intensity and frequency of storms globally will continue for decades.   

I have prepared a table of

I have prepared a table of metrics and explanations recorded that show the atmospheric changes that brought about the "Great Winter Freeze of 2012". I wonder how many of these freezes are in store for the rest of the year.

The table can be found at the base of main article text of this article as well as HERE.

Another big storm is heading

Another big storm is heading towards a large portion of Europe in the next 24 hours if the predicted jet stream position holds true. Piers Corbyn and Accuweather are also predicting snow storms later in the week. The west coast of the USA might also see some smaller jet stream action towards the end of the week. The current AO position is promoting massive weather mainly over the Euro zone presently, which may have something to do with the position of the high pressure cells and ozone locations over the pole. This will be something to watch over the remaining months of winter.


By comparing satellite

By comparing satellite pictures of Artic ice coverage at wattsupwiththat.com (http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg) it would seem that the current year has substantially less ice coverage than the year compared to  (2007).  This seems illogical.  The same satellite pictures that show ice coverage also inadvertantly show snow coverage.  The current snow coverage, especially in southern Europe and southern Asia is remarkably greater than in the comparrison year.  Since the displayed satellite pictures show ice in a purple color, is it possible that they do not give us a true picture?

You have a wonderful site here, a person could, by reading the entire site, learn more about the myth of global warming than by reading any 10 sites on the Web.  We, your readers appreceiate your efforts, we can never get enough of your thoughts and explanations of what is happening with our climate.  Your insights into solar and even glactic forces and  how they affect us on earth are facinating and informative reading.  You present your information in a humble manner always attrributing the information you find and praising those who did the work and made the discoveries and never claim credit for your own summations.

When I was a younster there was a TV show called "Dragnet", one of the detectives when asking questions would say "just the facts mam, just the facts".  I feel like I get that here.  Thank you ever so much for the facts.

 

REPLY: Thank you for the kind words, I think it is important to present both sides of the argument which hopefully will gain momentum as solar and climatic change will force those that perhaps follow agenda to look closer. In regard to the Cryosphere Today images, they are perhaps difficult to see the whole picture when comparing ice coverage along with ice thickness. Another view shows the 2012 ice coverage above 2007.

The recent changes over the past 3-4 years in the Arctic pressure patterns must have a downstream effect on ice coverage. Arctic ice is highly controlled by wind direction and strength so I do not place much importance on shifting sea ice extent, there has also been large movements of polar air moving further south than previous decades. On the other hand the Antarctic position is quite different being in a far more stable environment which  continues to show above normal ice extent.

 

Jakraig

Iceage Now has some

Iceage Now has some interesting info on "the official" NOAA sunspot counts.  They must hate reality.

http://iceagenow.info/2012/03/straight-month-dropping-sunspot-numbers/

NOAA SWPC updates their solar cycle graphs – 3rd straight month of dropping sunspot numbers

 

Snow is expected in

Snow is expected in Australian southern states on wed and friday according to our local weather forecasters. Looking at the predicted jet stream patterns available from the left hand menu we can see how an Antarctic blast could certainly hit us. Importantly it does not seem to matter what shape the polar vortex is in we are still getting the unusual movement of cold air from the poles. I think this is due to atmospheric changes brought about by a quiet sun.

Sunspot numbers have been

Sunspot numbers have been flat this month coming off a weak level. Its hard to guess the monthly number before the SIDC publishes their values, but my feeling for this month is a small rise from last month. Whether we get another boost higher than the previous high level will be the trend to watch in the coming months. The La Nina is officially dead according to our BOM with neutral conditions prevailing, but it will be important to watch the warm pool in the northern Pacific. It played a large part in the outgoing La Nina and if it builds later in the year along with helping winds a triple event is possibly on the cards.

It is not unusual to have a

It is not unusual to have a lengthy period of La Ninas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its negative phase. For example, except for the odd month or two there were continual La Ninas from 1906 to 1913 and then from 1915 to 1918. This was during solar cycle 14, when there was a little lower sunspot activity than in later cycles. 

I strongly suspect that when the negative phase of the PDO is reinforced by a grand minimum, there are very long periods of La Nina conditions. 

Ian Wilson's paper "Are changes in Earth's rotation rate externally driven and do they affect climate?" provide reconstructions of the PDO index and suggest that it also went into a negative phase somewhere between 1790 and 1800. So this suggests that La Ninas predominated during the Dalton Minimum also. It was probably what saved the European colonisation of Australia. Because if the heat and dryness of the 1788/89 and 1789/90 summers in Sydney had continued I doubt whether the colony could have survived since they had to mainly rely on regular rain to successfully grow crops.

It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next few years

REPLY: Thanks Brent, the two phases coming together certainly do seem to have an impact on climate. Whether the two phases are connected or happen to come together by coincidence is an area worth investigating.

 

Brent Walker

According to SpaceWeather.com

According to SpaceWeather.com the disc of the sun currently shows two sunspots, 1452 and 1454.

I don't see them.  If you look very, very closely you may see a little something, certainly not sunspots.

http://spaceweather.com/images2012/10apr12/hmi4096_blank.jpg

Why are we being subjected to false sunspot data?   Does a blank sun at this time in the cycle, near maximum, give cause for concern?  I'm an old man and am not used to seeing a blank sun at this part of a cycle and am a little nervous about it.  I realize the damage that cooling can cause.  I was really looking forward to a little warming, but I'm wondering if the blank and near blank sun of late has put the nix on warming and instead will make fools of warmists.  Since we haven't had warming for 15 years I think we can pretty safely say that the Carbon Dioxide warming/Global Warming thing was pretty silly, but do you think the cooling will be bad enough to worry about?

Thanks again for your lovely site.

jakraig

Jakraig

The SIDC and NOAA are now

The SIDC and NOAA are now stuck with counting specks so are unable to change their method. Wolf had a better method which took solar cycle 24 to expose the weakness in the current methods. The increased speck ratio that is not allowed for in Wolfer's 0.6 reduction factor on the current SIDC count to allow for the specks is a weakness. A bigger jump in the record happened in 1945 when Waldmeier introduced another way of counting spots that is still used today, which adds around 22% compared to the old values. This is the reason for the Layman's Count, so we can compare SC24 with older solar grand minimum cycles. The Layman's Count attempts to strip out the Waldmeier factor along with making compensation for the increased speck ratio.

It is likely that the current cycle and the next will be low which along with the neg PDO should drive down World temperatures.  I think we will be protected for awhile as it takes time to remove heat from the oceans. It will be an interesting experiment to see if man does have any influence on the future climate. I think man makes a very minor difference to the natural cycles, so my advice would be to pick up a discounted beach side property in a warm climate while people are still fooled about predicted sea level rise.

 

 

I wonder why the sun seems to

I wonder why the sun seems to have commenced its pole reversal ahead of schedule? Also what do readers make of the suggestion that the sun is going quadrapolar? Japanese and NASA scientists are suggesting that the last time it did this was during the Maunder Minimum. See http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2012/4/23/

Brent Walker

I suspect the north is

I suspect the north is reversing early because it came off such a low base in 2001 and the north has had most of the sunspot action so far. The south is now showing more sunspot activity, so it will be interesting to watch. The recent Japanese report does not provide any evidence of a quad-polar fields during the Maunder, although there are some tree ring records that suggest this phenomena. I am expecting either one pole not to flip or perhaps both or one pole staying neutral after sc24 max, which should render the following cycle to a low status. I think this happens every time a grand minimum occurs including the Dalton Minimum. My reasoning for this is that if looking at Carl's graph we never see a solar disturbance for longer than one cycle, there has to be a side effect that kills the following cycle which normally has very high angular momentum, which typically means a high cycle.

The experts getting on the band wagon now that are predicting a Maunder type minimum are purely guessing and do not understand the underlying causes. The Maunder had 3 disruptive AMP events from 1610 to 1690, we are only experiencing 1 this time around so the time frame will be much shorter. New evidence is coming to hand that shows the Maunder started around 1610 which now agrees with the 14C solar proxy record.

This is the first time we can observe the actual mechanics of a solar grand minimum....expect big headlines.

Another report re this topic HERE.

I hope that it isn't Maunder

I hope that it isn't Maunder or worse.  I guess worse would be if Professor Vladimir Paar nailed it with his prediction a few years back.  Humanity could be set back pretty badly with a 70,000 year glaciation cycle setting in.  It gets scary when considering that the date of onset roughly coincides with those who say it will be a "Little Ice Age", onset around 2014, and Professor Paar saying "within 5 years" from back around 2010.  I hope the "like solar cycle 5" prediction is right. 

The warm pool is building in

The warm pool is building in the central northern Pacific over the past week, which last year forced on the La Nina. The BOM is predicting a solid chance of El Nino to eventuate. I think it is still too early to call. The PDO has been constantly negative for 23 months

Given the fact El Nino

Given the fact El Nino starting to develop in Eastern Pacific will it lead California into a wet winter next year? The past winter was a dismal one from Nov thru Early march under the influence of the La Nina pattern. What are your early thoughts?

Kamau K. Canton

The likely hood of an El Niño

The likely hood of an El Niño building is gaining momentum as the warm pool in the pacific shrinks. But the pacific is still in strong neg PDO territory with lots of cold water down the west coast of USA. This is not good for moisture in this region but we still have the winter jet stream wild card in play which is impossible to predict at this stage. So I would not be game to predict a weather pattern for California but know the northern hemisphere will certainly cop it again this coming winter. The winter so far on the east coast of Australia has been cold with early snow and cold temps with lots of flooding happening as I type. Melbourne just had its coldest June day for 19 years. The sun is certainly not giving us anything to change my thinking on the next two decades right now.

Does the current Winter

Does the current Winter weather pattern on the East Coast of Austraila often reflects what could happen on the West Coast the following Winter? What is your analysis on that theory? I do see it has been very cool/rainy there lately. Also, the PDO is still very active which can affect El Nino patterns, but the jet stream is one of the major key factors which is impossible to predict at this time.

Kamau K. Canton

I don't think we can look at

I don't think we can look at past weather patterns to determine our future prospects. We are most likely in a similar position to 1805, so any data would be very vague. The solar affected jet stream and changing pressure patterns along with a neg PDO make it near impossible in my view for any long term weather prediction for a particular region, BUT I have no doubt there will be more extreme cold and snow for both hemispheres this winter.

I saw Joe's prediction. He is

I saw Joe's prediction. He is using data from the 50's when we had a double La Nina followed by an El Nino during a neg PDO. This data is good but there is one important factor which can be added. The 1950's saw the highest solar output of the modern record which looked to play a minor role with the ocean cycles ruling, but this time around the solar affected jet streams will also come into play which should provide an even greater degree of disruption and massive storm fronts. The QBO should be more inclined to favor a more neg AO as well which might make for a prefect storm. The coming winter will be one to watch as the solar activity near cycle max is not much higher than past minima, looking at the UV output.

The jet streams will be in

The jet streams will be in force again this winter with perhaps more looking at the underlying causes. EUV looks to be in the box seat but this area is still not understood. I am not sure the changing jet streams are a driver of ocean cycles as what we are seeing now has not happened for at least 100 years and maybe 200 years. The ocean cycles tend to work in 30 year negative then 30 year positive. Also the ENSO state for the NH winter is set up in the NH summer and autumn which is not really influenced by the jet stream which forms in the NH winter yemek tarifleri

The Gulf Stream is looking

The Gulf Stream is looking very cold today, the cold has been building over several weeks. If this trend is sustained it may become important.

Jet stream changes. I was

Jet stream changes.

I was having morning tea with a commercial pilot today. We were talking about Jet streams. He told me the strongest jet stream he ever encountered was 195 KM per hour on a flight from Brisbane to Mt Isa. He said the flight took much longer than usual.

If you look at the jet stream today http://wxmaps.org/pix/shemi5.00hr.png you will see that the jet stream from Perth through to above Brisbane is rocketing along at more than 250 kph. I wonder if not only are the Rossby waves deeper and moving more slowly around the globe but the average speed of jet streams has got faster? I also wonder if they might be operating at a lower minimum and higher maximum height than usual? This would further increase their effectiveness on local weather conditions.

Brent Walker

Thanks Brent, the jet stream

Thanks Brent, the jet stream observation may be something that hopefully is studied and reported on in the near future along with ozone percentages at different levels. Also of interest is the ENSO state which I think still has a good chance of another La Nina. The SOI has been mostly positive this month and the Nth Pacific warm pool continues to build.

When I tied to figure out the

When I tied to figure out the PDO, ENSO relationship I only counted PDO as +ve or -ve if the data was above + .5 or below - .5 so anything in between I took as neutral. I suspect the same philospohy can be applied to other indicies although the neutral range for each indicie maybe between different numbers. I don't know whether that helps. I am fascinated by the very cold water pools west of Europe and Canada/California. I don't remember such a pronounced difference between the cold and central warm pool last year. 

I see Beijing is copping the freak rainstorms now. US $10B economic damages up to yesterday. This will cause more grief to the big reinsurers. 

Brent Walker

The trend in the SOI is

The trend in the SOI is certainly going against the model predictions for an el Nino. The trade winds across the central pacific will be good to watch in next BOM ENSO update. I wonder on the strength of the models used, do they have information of PDO activity from the last negative stage and are they allowing for a change to PDO/ENSO conditions because of a quiet Sun....I suspect not.

Interestingly, the Pacific

Interestingly, the Pacific waters off of Peru has warmed 2-5 degrees since June 27th. Every single model I have read points to an El Nino pattern(at least a weak or moderate one). Also, the Hurricane season in the Atlantic has been very quiet so far this season due to the wind shear from the developing El Nino pattern and also the Pacific has been quite active this year. Every model I have read for the past several months has indicated that the NH will not be returning to La Nina mode, especially since we had 2yrs in a row. It's very rare to have 3yrs in a row of La Nina patterns. Perhaps the positive SOI values could be seasonal or other atmospheric weather patterns involved, but should change as we head toward Fall/Winter depending on how the El Nino pattern develops.

Kamau K. Canton

The SOI, trade winds and the

The SOI, trade winds and the water above Australia are for me the key indicators to watch for over ocean models. What is needed for a La Nina is a bit more warmth above Australia and New guinea which will strengthen the trade winds and destroy any hope of a El Nino building.

The current wind map is continuing to show trade wind action across the equatorial Pacific as well as some movement of the warm water held in the northern central Pacific, but this has to continue to fight off a El Nina position. Remember the PDO is a measure of spatial temperature anomalies in the northern Pacific AND the wind anomalies and direction of this region by way of surface level pressure. The fight is on with a negative PDO sitting in the La Nina corner.

BTW if you look at the ENSO NINO 3.4 graph on the left widget box you will see a peak in temps around this time last year that then fell to cold conditions. The same is happening now but the question is will it continue down or turn around?

The Australian BOM ENSO

The Australian BOM ENSO report is out today. The SOI is positive and the trade winds are around average, but still no models are predicting a La Nina.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds

Most climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain at values near the threshold of an El Niño event. Although indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds are less El Niño-like than they were a month ago, ocean surface temperatures continue to show a pattern, and in some places values, typical of the development stage of an El Niño. Climate models suggest weak El Niño conditions are likely to be reached some time in late winter or spring. No climate models suggest a return to La Niña conditions.

 

 

There is precedent for

There is precedent for several years of La Nina conditions when the PDO is in a strong negative phase.

For example: according to the extended ENSO data series produced by NOAA, La Nina conditions existed from July 1906 to August 1911, then from October 1915 to August 1918 and then from July 1920 to June 1923. There was also a weak La Nina from June 1912 until June 1913. 

I suspect that during grand minimums there could be even longer periods of predominantly La Nina conditions but ice age conditions also occurred in Western Europe during probable El Ninos.

I have been reading James A Marusek's "A chronological listing of early weather events". The so called "little ice age" conditions only occurred sporadically during the Dalton Minimum. But there were also severe heat waves, and many dreadful storms.  For example the summer of 1793 was hotter in France than had ever been recorded that Century. But on the nights of May 30 and 31, there were severe frosts that destroyed most of the grape vines in France. Also several massive storms occurred that summer. In one severe storm in the following winter around 2.5 to 3 metres of snow fell across Scotland in one night. In the winter of 1794/95 the Seine froze as Paris had 42 consecutive days of frost and London had 53 consecutive days of frost (except for a brief thaw on one day) and the Thames froze for some of that time. I think there must have been an El Nino then as there was also severe drought conditions in NSW at the same time. 

The book is over 800 pages in length so there is a lot to digest and relate back to what we now know the sun was up to.

Brent Walker

I believe more frost and

I believe more frost and freeze watches and warnings coming up now in the Lower 48 states of the U.S. What do you think?

Olivia (http://oliviataylor.bravejournal.com)

 

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