question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

Feed aggregator

Harsh winter weather worsening Canada’s oil crisis

IceAgeNow - Wed, 02/21/2018 - 13:46

Quote from an article on zerohedge.com:

21 Feb 2018 – “The situation is going from bad to worse for Canadian producers who can’t seem to catch a break. Canadian railway operators are fighting harsh winter weather and finding it hard to supply enough cars to move both crude oil from Alberta and grain from the Prairies.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-21/canadas-oil-crisis-continues-worsen

Thanks to Jack Hydrazine for this link

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Siberian super frost to invade large portion of Europe

IceAgeNow - Wed, 02/21/2018 - 12:46

Will be an “epochal event,” warns Italian website. “Truly extraordinary.” “Historical.”

A “truly extraordinary” wave of frost will cover more than half of Europe, warns Meteo Giornale. A mass of very cold, glacial air will stretch directly from Siberia into Russia, cross the Urals and then expand to the heart of the Old Continent.

It will be “an epochal event for the end of February,” not only in Italy, but also in parts of Europe. “It is very unusual at the end of February to have to deal with freezing flows of such intensity, it is a historical.”
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Frost waves of this magnitude are quite rare for this period at the end of winter.

The invasion of freezing from Russia to Central and Eastern Europe over the weekend and beginning on Sunday the frigid winds of Bora will also reach Italy, bursting on the Gulf of Trieste and the Upper Adriatic and then spreading over the North and then Marche, Umbria and Tuscany.

Forecasts indicate that the Center-North of Italy could be hit, with frost and even snow to the plains,  perhaps exceptional snowfall. If snow falls in Rome, it has never occurred in this period in the last 30 years.

https://www.meteogiornale.it/notizia/49748-1-grande-gelo-fine-febbraio-evento-epocale-per-fine-febbraio

https://www.meteogiornale.it/notizia/49760-1-novita-meteo-imponenti-aggiornamento-gelo-siberiano

https://www.meteogiornale.it/notizia/49756-1-meteo-italia-potente-ondata-gelo-siberiano

Thanks to Martin Siebert for these links

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Record cold in San Francisco

IceAgeNow - Wed, 02/21/2018 - 11:09

And in Oakland. And in Salinas. And in Half Moon Bay. And in Gilroy. And in Livermore.
Must be a global warming hole in California today. ________________

20 Feb 2018 – The temperature in SFO fell to 36° this morning, breaking the record of 37° set back in 2011. OAK has tied its record of 34° last set in 2006. Both sites still have time to cool further before sunrise. Other records likely tied or broken across the region this morning.

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https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea

https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/965939450521051136

Thanks to Clay Olson for these links

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Powerful eruption “completely annihilated” Mount Singabung’s peak

IceAgeNow - Tue, 02/20/2018 - 16:49

Propels ash more than 4 miles (7 km) into the sky and blows away much of the mountain’s summit. Includes video.

Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation  (PVMBG) says the explosion “completely annihilated” the mountain’s peak, it’s ‘lava dome.’ 

Images released by PVMBG show what the top of the volcano, with more than a million cubic meters shaved off, looks like. Text on top of frame reads “Before Feb. 19, 2018” and text on bottom reads “After Feb. 19, 2018.

Volcanologist Devy Kamil Syahbana said that the lava dome had a volume of at least 1.6 million cubic meters (56.5 million cubic feet).

Mount Sinabung before and after

Video of fleeing school children

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Mount Sinabung before (Wikipedia)

Many photos:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/920895/Mount-Sinabung-volcano-eruption-latest-pictures-Indonesia-volcano

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/921613/Mount-Sinabung-eruption-Indonesia-2018-video-volcano-news-update-latest

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/asia/indonesia-s-sinabung-volcano-erupts-spewing-gas-20180219-p4z0uh.html

Thanks to Jerry Duff and Keith Connelly for these links

“This is a major eruption,” says Jerry. “Much of Asia and Malaysia will be affected. Crop loss and possibly no summer. The ash is above both the stratosphere and troposphere. I cannot stress how serious this eruption is.”

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Severe cold headed for Europe

IceAgeNow - Tue, 02/20/2018 - 15:31

“Intense cold wave over this week,” says Climaterra. “In 5 days will already be in almost all of Europe, very cold for several days and strong blizzards in several countries.”

“(It will be a) severe cold Europe,” says meteorologist Joe Bastardi. “(And nothing to do with CO2,”

Severe cold headed for Europe – Meteorologist Joe Bastardi

https://twitter.com/Climaterra/status/965698319753338880/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fsaojoaquimonline.com.br%2Fclimaterra%2F

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/248e5f855f1c585597e1628722f364c95f5d256667174e3298972bf38bc7427c.png

https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2018/02/19/arctic-sea-ice-going-bananas/

Thanks to Caleb Shaw, tomOmason and Martin Siebert for these links

‘Were there not some complaints in from French wine grape growers and Spanish vegetable grower about unseasonable weather recently? asks Tom. “Hold-on it’s just about to get worse!”

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Colder than normal in Peru

IceAgeNow - Tue, 02/20/2018 - 14:33

18 Feb 2018 – Senamhi warns of low temperatures in the mountains of Puno and Arequipa.

The values are expected to reach -8 ° C in areas above 4,000 meters above sea level (masl), while -5 ° C in areas above 3800 masl.

José Luis Ticona, in charge of the Senamhi, indicated that these temperatures are due to the entry of a cold mass from the Pacific Ocean, causing it to be colder than normal

https://exitosanoticias.pe/senamhi-advierte-descendencia-de-temperaturas/

Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for this link

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Record snowfall in Norway brings warnings of roof cave ins

IceAgeNow - Tue, 02/20/2018 - 13:38

Several instances of property owners needing to dig tunnels to their front doors.
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20 Feb 2018 – Heavy snowfall continues to set new records in the hills around Oslo and throughout Southern Norway.

Norway’s waterways and energy directorate NVE reported that there hasn’t been as much snow in the hills around Oslo since 1995, in some areas since the mid-1960s.

There’s been at least 80 cm (32 inches) at low elevations this winter and more than a meter at higher elevations, with the hills around suburban Bærum reporting around 120 cm (4 ft) of snow on the ground.

There’s also been lots of snow along the southern and western coasts as well as in the mountains and inland areas. State broadcaster NRK has featured several incidents of hytte (cabin) owners arriving at their properties to find them snowed in, with a need to dig tunnels to the front doors.

Engineering advisory association RIF (Rådgivende Ingeniørers Forening) warned that all those who haven’t removed snow from their rooftops must do so to prevent them from caving in.

http://www.newsinenglish.no/2018/02/20/snow-sets-record-raises-concerns/

Thanks to Steven Felton for this link

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Montana city headed for snowiest February on record

IceAgeNow - Mon, 02/19/2018 - 17:28

Second time in just three years that Billings has broken the February snowfall record. Not just for the date, mind you, but for the entire month.

As of yesterday, Billings hadn’t seen this much snow by the 18th of February — ever — and 10 more days still remain in the month

As of Sunday night, at least 31.5 inches of snow had fallen this month, well on the way to breaking the previous February snowfall record of 37 inches set just three years ago in 2014.

For the snow year so far, measured from July 1, snowfall stands at 76 inches, about 44 inches above normal.

The 103.5 inches that fell during the 2013-2014 snow season made it the highest snow season on record.

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/snow-records-continue-to-fall-after-latest-storm/article_f64a68cc-ca9a-5928-a43d-4151d4c30018.html

Thanks to Clay Olson for this link

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485 scientific papers undermine so-called consensus – Video

IceAgeNow - Mon, 02/19/2018 - 16:48

The science is not nearly as settled among climate scientists as people imagine.

An entire series of papers – 485 published in 2017 alone – have been ignored by the mainstream media.

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“Crumbling” consensus is an understatement

Thanks to Ron de Haan for this video

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New eBook edition now available

IceAgeNow - Mon, 02/19/2018 - 10:50

If you’ve already read Not by Fire but by Ice, then you will want this eBook edition. If you haven’t already read it, well, this is your chance.

New eBook edition now available!

In this edition you will find lots of new information that has surfaced since the print version came out. You will also find links to the sources of that knowledge.

As an added bonus, you will find a completely new chapter providing evidence that we are entering an ice age. Not a millennia from today, not a century from today, but right now.

As an example of “new information,” twenty years ago scientists thought Earth’s magnetic field intensity was dropping at the rate of 5% per century. But in 2014, the European Space Agency announced that our magnetic field is weakening at the rate of 5% per decade, ten times faster than thought. You need to know this because it could be deadly important.

Another example of new information concerns magnetic reversals. You will find proof that magnetic reversals can occur almost overnight (geologically speaking).

You will learn of explosive new studies describing the role of underwater volcanoes in the Arctic Ocean.

You will see maps showing the incredible amount of land – in one case the size of a continent – that stood above water during the last ice age. (Because sea levels were 400 feet lower than today.)

And you will find more emphasis on the sunspot cycle. You will be introduced to many highly credentialed scientists, more than you’ve been lead to believe, who insist that today’s low sunspot count is driving us into a new Little Ice Age, right now.

$9.95
Click here to purchase

 

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Trying to explain New Zealand’s ‘unusual’ growing glaciers

IceAgeNow - Mon, 02/19/2018 - 04:37

Contrary to all of the hype about melting glaciers, at least 58 New Zealand glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008. Indeed, Franz Josef Glacier advanced nearly continuously during those years.

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According to scientists from Victoria University of Wellington and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), at least 58 New Zealand glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008.

Franz Josef glacier – Wikipedia

But how can glaciers be advancing in a world that’s (supposedly) burning up?

“Glaciers advancing is very unusual—especially in this period when the vast majority of glaciers worldwide shrank in size as a result of our warming world,” said lead-author Associate Professor Andrew Mackintosh from Victoria’s Antarctic Research Centre.

Why are the glaciers advancing?

“We found that lower temperature caused the glaciers to advance, rather than increased precipitation as previously thought. These periods of reduced temperature affected the entire New Zealand region, and they were significant enough for the glaciers to re-advance in spite of human-induced climate change.”

“Periods of reduced temperature.” What a wonderfully Orwellian way of describing cold weather.

Computer models come to the rescue

How could the researchers explain away the “periods of reduced temperature?” By diving into their computer models, of course.

“It may seem unusual—this regional cooling during a period of overall global warming,” said associate Professor Mackintosh, “but it’s still consistent with human-induced climate change.”

And there you have it.

Computer models now show that both “reduced temperature” and, what shall we call it – negative cooling? – are caused by humans.

The study was published on 15 Feb 2017 in scientific journal Nature Communications.

See entire article:
https://www.victoria.ac.nz/news/2017/02/explaining-new-zealands-unusual-growing-glaciers

Thanks to Chris Norman for this link

Franz Josef Glacier exhibits a cyclic pattern of advance and retreat, seemingly regardless of human activity. It advanced rapidly during the Little Ice Age, reaching a maximum in the early eighteenth century. It retreated several kilometers (miles) between the 1940s and 1980s, but also advanced intermittingly during those years. It advanced from 1946 to 1951, it advanced from 1965 to 1967, it advanced from 1983 to 1999, and it advanced yet again from 2004 to 2008.

At times, Franz Josef Glacier has advanced at the incredible rate of 70 cm (more than 2 feet) per day. Two feet per day!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Glacier

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Moscow headed for coldest week of the year

IceAgeNow - Mon, 02/19/2018 - 03:53

Temperature will be below the norm by 12 degrees!

19 Feb 2019 – While today’s temperature in Moscow is 3 degrees higher than the average January temperature,  that is about to change.

On Wednesday, February 21, the minimum temperature in Moscow will drop to -14 to -19°C. On Thursday, February 22, the temperature will drop to -18 to – 20°C.

The coldest day will be February 23, when the temperature will drop to -20 to – 25°C. The average daily temperature will be below the norm by 12 degrees!

http://hmn.ru/index.php?index=1&ts=180219114148
https://www.gismeteo.ru/news/klimat/26517-pogoda-v-moskve-russkaya-zima-otvetit-na-svoi-provody/

Thanks to Martin Siebert for this link

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Climate alarmism is still bizarre, dogmatic, intolerant

IceAgeNow - Sun, 02/18/2018 - 15:09

“Bitter cold is ‘exactly what we should expect’ from the global warming ‘crisis,’ said Climategeddon expert Al Gore.” – Paul Driessen
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“As the climate change debate continues, claims of an imminent climate apocalypse show no signs of dissipating,” says Paul Driessen. “Indeed, many are still bizarre, defying belief, and yet still receiving research funds, as often dogmatic and intolerant proponents of climate chaos claims demand energy system overhauls that would wreak havoc on industries, jobs and families.”

“Spending trillions of dollars – and condemning billions of people to expensive, insufficient, unreliable, land and raw material gobbling wind, solar and biofuel energy – is not just unnecessary. It is immoral.”

Here, Driessen offers antidotes to correct the myths and misinformation that are still staples of climate alarmism.

 

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Climate alarmism is still bizarre, dogmatic, intolerant

Claims defy parody, as alarmists become more tyrannical and their policies wreak havoc

By Paul Driessen

Climate alarmism dominated the Obama era and run-up to Paris. But it’s at least as bizarre, dogmatic and intolerant now that: President Trump pulled the United States out of the all pain/no gain Paris climate pact; the US EPA is reversing anti-fossil fuel programs rooted in doom-and-gloom climatology; America is producing and exporting more oil, gas and coal; developing nations are burning vastly more of these fuels; Poland is openly challenging EU climate diktats; and German, British Australian and other politicians are voicing increasing concerns about job-killing, eco-unfriendly “green” energy.

With trillions of dollars in research money, power, prestige, renewable energy subsidies, wealth redistribution schemes, and dreams of international governance on the line, the $1.5-trillion-per-year Climate Industrial Complex is not taking the situation lightly. Climate fear-mongering is in full swing.

Tried-and-true scare stories still dominate the daily news, often with new wrinkles tied to current events. The Winter Olympics were going to take “a huge hit from our warming planet,” the pressure group Protect Our Winters warned us (yes, it’s an actual organization). Of course, that was before fiendishly frigid conditions repeatedly postponed events and drove spectators from PyeongChang slopes.

Bitter cold is exactly what we should expect from global warming

But of course, bitter cold is “exactly what we should expect” from the global warming “crisis,” said Climategeddon expert Al Gore, who got a C and D in the only two science courses he took in college. It’s reminiscent of dire predictions that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2010 (or 2015 or 2025), and “children just aren’t going to know what snow is” (until record cold and snow battered the UK a couple years later).

We’re likewise propagandized constantly with deliberate falsehoods about “carbon pollution.” We burn carbon, in the form of hydrocarbons and coal. In the process, we emit carbon dioxide which is not a pollutant. It is the miracle plant food that makes life on Earth possible.

Other standard scares ignore the innumerable, monumental benefits of carbon-based fuels – and blame these fuels and CO2 emissions for planetary warming (and cooling), rising seas, forest fires, and every major problem from malaria to rainstorms, droughts, hurricanes and tornadoes.

A newly discovered danger, say a couple researchers, endangers green sea turtles. Planetary warming is causing up to 99% of turtle eggs to hatch as females. It won’t be long, perhaps just decades, until “there will not be enough males” to propagate the species. Some “30 years of knowledge” support this thesis.

That would take us all the way back to 1988, a decade before the 18-year global warming “hiatus” that was interrupted by the 2015-16 El Niño; a half-century since the Dust Bowl and record high planetary temperatures of the 1930s; 40 years after scientists were convinced Earth was about to enter a new little ice age; and some 750 years after the 300-year-long Medieval Warm Period. One has to wonder how sea turtles managed to survive such previous warm spells – and cold periods like the four-century-long Little Ice Age, since cold weather apparently churns out only male sea turtles.

Not to be outdone, Hillary Clinton asserted that women “will bear the brunt of looking for food, looking for firewood, looking for the place to migrate to when all the grass is finally gone, as the desertification moves south” because of climate change. Wrong. Entire families will continue to bear these burdens because of anti-energy policies imposed in the name of sustainability and climate change prevention.

800 horrors supposedly caused byAGW

(For more fearsome forecasts, see The Warmlist, a no longer complete, but still entertaining compendium of some 800 horrors supposedly caused by “dangerous manmade global warming and climate change.”)

The constant consternation strikes many as ridiculous. But others have become true believers – and have committed to not having children, not taking showers, de-carbonizing, de-industrializing and de-growing developed countries, shutting off oil pipelines, and other futile actions that bring no earthly benefits.

Our planet has certainly been warming. Thank goodness for that, because the extra warmth lifted habitats and humanity out of the Little Ice Age and its chilly, stormy weather, greatly reduced arable land, short growing seasons and CO2-starved crops. Powerful, uncontrollable natural forces drove that temperature rise. Earth may now face dangerous Mann-made global warming and climate cataclysms concocted by computer models – but no “unprecedented” or “existential” human-caused dangers in the real world.

Question or challenge climate crisis orthodoxy, however, and you will be vilified and face RICO prosecutions, bogus slander and SLAPP lawsuits, censure or expulsion from your university, attacks for sponsoring museum exhibits, or even “four hots and a cot” in a jail or a faraway gulag.

Thankfully, there are excellent antidotes: books by climatologists Roy Spencer, Patrick Michaels, Jennifer Marohasy, Tim Ball, political observer Marc Steyn and others; and websites like ClimateDepot.com, WattsUpWithThat.com, DrRoySpencer.com and Global Warming Policy Foundation.org, for example.

Inconvenient Facts

For a concise, yet comprehensive, and eminently readable lay guide to real climate science, geologist Gregory Wrightstone’s Inconvenient Facts: The science that Al Gore doesn’t want you to know may meet your needs. Its 123 pages are organized into two sections and 30 easily understood chapters, written in plain English and complimented by over 100 colorful charts, graphs, tables and illustrations, covering all the common climate issues, fears and myths.

The book is capped off by a handy list of 60 inconvenient facts that eviscerate alarmist dogma, and 15 pages of references. As Lord Christopher Monckton’s says in his foreword, Wrightstone has succeeded “splendidly” in reliably distinguishing myths from realities in the climate debate.

The opening section devotes 54 pages to explaining greenhouse and climate basics, showing how carbon dioxide is huge in planetary life but minuscule on the climate front, skewering the myth of a 400 ppm CO2 “tipping point,” analyzing climate models versus real world measurements of global temperature, and showing why and how water vapor plays such a vital and dominant role in weather and climate.

Carbon dioxide, he notes, is essential plant food that makes forests, grasslands and crops grow faster and better, with less water, and thus able to feed more people from less land. Figure I-15 summarizes data from 3,586 experiments on 549 plant species and depicts how crop yields would increase and generate trillions of dollars in overall monetary benefits, if CO2 levels rose by 300 ppm. His analysis of the “hockey stick,” computer models and temperature predictions is equally illuminating.

Part II of Wrightstone’s book examines the many assertions and myths of a coming climate apocalypse, and demonstrates why they fail to meet basic standards of scientific evidence and integrity. The opening chapter demolishes the phony 97% “consensus” of scientists who supposedly agree that humans are now the primary cause of extreme weather and climate change, ushering in a catastrophic future. Subsequent chapters address famines, forest fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, melting ice packs, rising seas, polar bear populations, and other staples of climate alarmism.

“Ocean acidification,” he points out, is a term deliberately chosen to alarm people about an imaginary problem. Being honest, and saying seas might become very slightly less alkaline (have slightly lower pH levels) from more atmospheric and oceanic CO2 in the coming centuries, wouldn’t suffice. Worse, an oft-cited study ignored a full century of readily available data, and instead used computer models to fill in the contrived “gaps” on pH levels. As Wrightstone suggests, many people would call it Climate pHraud.

The bottom line? Scientists still do not understand the complexities of climate and weather. They still cannot separate human influences from the effects of powerful natural forces that have brought often profound climate changes throughout history. There is no evidence of a coming climate cataclysm.

Spending trillions of dollars – and condemning billions of people to expensive, insufficient, unreliable, land and raw material gobbling wind, solar and biofuel energy – is not just unnecessary. It is immoral.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of books and articles on energy and environmental policy.

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Cold coating streets in Saudi Arabia

IceAgeNow - Sun, 02/18/2018 - 14:15

“Heavy hail in Saudi Arabia,” says reader. “The translation is not perfect, but we get the picture.”

18 Feb 2018 – Cold coating streets of tattoo (?) and Sudair Riyadh. (with video)

The cold, at dawn on Sunday, the streets of the areas of tattoos and Sudair, which are located 180 km north of Riyadh.

There were also sporadic rains accompanied by cold on tattoos, including the province of Shakra and a number of its centers, followed by coral reefs and fire and thunder. (I have no idea what this means.)

See lots of photos:
https://www.slaati.com/2018/02/18/p1010296.html
https://www.slaati.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/b51d29f8-d33f-4d58-8e2f-236c5c8afe09.jpg
https://www.slaati.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/649d68ee-37e1-429d-b1ec-7be77f8edc64.jpg
https://www.slaati.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/0b9d9c96-170a-4f64-ba21-dc8fc06d41be.jpg
https://www.slaati.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/02b97f92-b2e6-4e4a-96d4-e764b985cba4.jpg
https://www.slaati.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/130c61a7-b73c-407f-b9b2-3565603cbeb7.jpg

Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for these links

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Winter storm warnings or advisories for 26 states

IceAgeNow - Sat, 02/17/2018 - 16:45

Parts of the Cascades could get three feet (1 meter) of snow.

Forecasts are calling for snow in parts of all of these areas: California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington, D.C.

This map may change by the time you look at it, but here’s what it looked like at 2:30 pm Pacific time on 17 Feb 2018.

http://www.weather.gov/

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Seal hunters come back empty-handed – Ice too thick

IceAgeNow - Sat, 02/17/2018 - 16:19

Thick ice blocks attempts to reach herds off Nova Scotia. ‘Catastrophic’ for grey seal hunters.

Thick ice on Gulf of St Lawrence – 8Feb18 – Photo courtesy Fisheries and Ocean Canada

8 Feb 2018 – Sealers on the Magdalen Islands usually haul in 2,000 grey seals in the short winter hunting season. This year, after two failed expeditions out on the Gulf of St. Lawrence, they did not bring back a single seal. They were not able to get past the thick ice.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/bad-season-seal-hunt-magdalen-islands-1.4526262

Thanks to Stephen Bird for this link

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Exceptional cold in Brazil – Large rice plantation losses feared

IceAgeNow - Sat, 02/17/2018 - 15:55

More cold-trend indications for Southern Hemisphere.
And another moderate to stronger polar mass for the season on days 22 – 26/Feb (South Brazil)

Very low temperature for the time of year at dawn and late night. Minimal; 10/17 ° C in most of the state, between 10/17 ° C in most of the coast and a good part of the Itajaí valley and between 3/6 ° C in several points of the top of the mountain, low and isolated frost valleys . Highs between 22/29 ° C in most of SC, 20/23 ° C at the top of the mountain / towns + of 1200/1300 m, between 33/36 ° C in isolated points of the western end. On the beaches between 23/26 ° C.

Many rice plantations on the south and upper middle coast of the Itajaí valley may have minimums between 10/14 ° C (those that have flowering or grain filling, may have large losses to totals). (Emphasis included in original article.)

http://saojoaquimonline.com.br/climaterra/2018/02/15/previsao-do-tempo-nos-dias-16-a-19-de-fevereiro-de-2018-e-tendencia-para-o-verao-2017-18/

First half of February totally out of the summer pattern, that is, mild or even cold. Map (link below) shows the negative deviation from the mean.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWKu8JhW4AEiCwW?format=jpg

saojoaquimonline.com.br/climaterra

Thanks to Martin Siebert for these links

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2 to 4 feet of snow for Cascades

IceAgeNow - Sat, 02/17/2018 - 15:27

This on top of the 1 foot of snow on Thursday night and the 2 feet of snow on Friday. There’s so much snow that chains are required on Interstate 90 (4-wheel drive is not enough).

Actually, chains won’t do much good right now, because westbound I-90 is closed right now due to multiple collisions and spin outs. ( https://www.wsdot.com/traffic/trafficalerts/default.aspx?refnum=307333&action=2&aw=1  )
_____________________

National Weather Service Spokane WA
Feb 17 2018

…Moderate to heavy snow expected today and Sunday over portions of the Inland Northwest…

A strong and wetter storm system will arrive Saturday morning, delivering snow at times through Sunday. Heavy snow accumulations are possible in the mountains and valleys of northeast and north-central Washington and over much of the Idaho Panhandle. At times, this snow will be accompanied by strong winds over the mountains.

…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches, with mountain accumulations of 2 to 4 feet likely near the crest.

* WHERE…Leavenworth, Mazama, Twisp, Winthrop, Stehekin, Conconully, Blewett Pass, and Loup Loup Pass. Most of the valley snow is expected to occur over the upper portions of Lake Chelan and the upper Methow Valley.

* WHEN…Until 6 PM PST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel will be very difficult to impossible in areas of heavy snow. Winds gusting as high as 30 to 40 over the mountains will also lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow on Saturday afternoon and evening. Local gusts over 50 mph is possible south of Lake Chelan. Another round of wind and blowing and drifting snow is possible on Sunday.

http://www.weather.gov/sew/

Thanks to Kenneth Lund for this link

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Overheated claims on temperature records

IceAgeNow - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 18:25

“Most basic assumptions underlying climate concerns are either in doubt or simply wrong” – Dr. Tim Ball and Tom Harris
___________________

“Over and over, we are confronted with claims that last month or last year was “the warmest on record.” says Paul Driessen. “Each claim is accompanied by dire warnings that the alleged new records portend “unprecedented” chaos for wildlife, humans and planet.”

“Virtually never do these scary press releases mention that the supposed change is mere hundredths of a degree higher than previous measurements. Never do they admit that the margin of error in these measurements is far greater than the supposed increase.  Never do they suggest that a little more warmth would be infinitely better than a colder world, with less arable land and shorter growing seasons. And most certainly, never do they admit to the massive deficiencies in the system that supposedly tracks Earth’s temperature … and always blames any increases on humans and fossil fuels.”

“This article by Dr. Tim Ball and Tom Harris points out all these highly relevant but often (deliberately) ignored realities.”
_________________________

Overheated claims on temperature records

It’s time for sober second thoughts on climate alarms

By Dr. Tim Ball and Tom Harris

Now that the excitement has died down over the news that Earth’s surface temperature made 2017 one of the hottest years on record, it is time for sober second thoughts.

Did the January 18 announcement by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that 2017 was our planet’s third-hottest year since 1880, and NASA’s claim that it was the second hottest year, actually mean anything?

Thank goodness we have been in a gradual warming trend since the depths of the Little Ice Age

Although the Los Angeles Times called 2017 “a top-three scorcher for planet Earth,” neither the NOAA nor the NASA records are significant. One would naturally expect the warmest years to come during the most recent years of a warming trend. And thank goodness we have been in a gradual warming trend since the depths of the Little Ice Age in the late 1600s! Back then, the River Thames was covered by a meter of ice, as Jan Grifier’s 1683 painting “The Great Frost’ illustrates.

Regardless, recent changes have been too small for even most thermometers to notice. More important, they are often less than the government’s estimates of uncertainty in the measurements. In fact, we lack the data to properly and scientifically compare today’s temperatures with the past.

This is because, until the 1960s, surface temperature data was collected using mercury thermometers located at weather stations situated mostly in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and eastern Australia. Most of the rest of the planet had very few temperature sensing stations. And none of the Earth’s oceans, which constitute 70 percent of the planet’s surface area, had more than an occasional station separated from its neighbors by thousands of kilometers or miles.

The data collected at the weather stations in this sparse grid had, at best, an accuracy of +/-0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit). In most cases, the real-world accuracy was no better than +/-1 deg C (1.8 deg F). Averaging such poor data in an attempt to determine global conditions cannot yield anything meaningful. Displaying average global temperature to tenths or even hundreds of a degree, as is done in the NOAA and NASA graphs, clearly defies common sense.

Modern weather station surface temperature data is now collected using precision thermocouples. But, starting in the 1970s, less and less ground surface temperature data was used for plots such as those by NOAA and NASA. This was done initially because governments believed satellite monitoring could take over from most of the ground surface data collection.

Satellites did not show the desired warming so bureaucrats closed most of the colder sensing stations thereby yielding the desired warming

However, the satellites did not show the warming forecast by computer models, which had become so crucial to climate studies and energy policy-making. So bureaucrats closed most of the colder rural surface temperature sensing stations – the ones furthest from much warmer urban areas – thereby yielding the warming desired for political purposes.

Today, virtually no data exist for approximately 85 percent of the earth’s surface. Indeed, fewer weather stations are in operation now than in 1960.

Computations by NOAA and NASA after about 1980 are meaningless

That means surface temperature computations by NOAA and NASA after about 1980 are meaningless. Combining this with the problems with earlier data renders an unavoidable conclusion: It is not possible to know how Earth’s so-called average surface temperature has varied over the past century and a half.

The data is therefore useless for input to the computer models that form the basis of policy recommendations produced by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and used to justify eliminating fossil fuels, and replacing them with renewable energy.

But the lack of adequate surface data is only the start of the problem. The computer models on which the climate scare is based are mathematical constructions that require the input of data above the surface, as well as on it. The models divide the atmosphere into cubes piled on top of each other, ideally with wind, humidity, cloud cover and temperature conditions known for different altitudes. But we currently have even less data above the surface than on it, and there is essentially no historical data at altitude.

Many people think the planet is adequately covered by satellite observations, data that represents global 24/7 coverage and is far more accurate than anything determined at weather stations. But the satellites are unable to collect data from the north and south poles, regions that the IPCC, NOAA and NASA tout as critical to understanding global warming. Besides, space-based temperature data collection did not start until 1979, and 30 years of weather data are required to generate a single data point on a climate graph.

So the satellite record is far too short to allow us to come to useful conclusions about climate change.

In fact, there is insufficient data of any kind – temperature, land and sea ice, glaciers, sea level, extreme weather, ocean pH,  and so on – to be able to determine how today’s climate differs from the past. Lacking such fundamental data, climate forecasts cited by climate activists therefore have no connection with the real world.

British Professor Hubert Lamb is often identified as the founder of modern climatology. In his comprehensive 1972 treatise, Climate: Past, Present and Future, he clearly showed that it is not possible to understand climate change without having vast amounts of accurate weather data over long time frames. Lamb also noted that funding for improving the weather database was dwarfed by money being spent on computer models and theorizing. He warned that this would result in wild and unsubstantiated theories and assertions, while predictions failed to improve. That is precisely what happened.

Each and every prediction made by the computer models cited by the IPCC have turned out to be incorrect.

Indeed, the first predictions they made for the IPCC’s 1990 Assessment Report were so wrong that the panel started to call them “projections” and offered low, medium and high “confidence” ranges for future guesstimates, which journalists, politicians and others nevertheless treated as reliable predictions for future weather and climate.

IPCC members seemed to conclude that, if they provided a broad enough range of forecasts, one was bound to be correct. Yet, even that was too optimistic. All three ranges predicted by the IPCC have turned out to be wrong.

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Scott Pruitt is right to speak about the need for a full blown public debate among scientists about the causes and consequences of climate change. In his February 6 television interview on KSNV, an NBC affiliate in Las Vegas, Mr. Pruitt explained:

“There are very important questions around the climate issue that folks really don’t get to. And that’s one of the reasons why I’ve talked about having an honest, open, transparent debate about what do we know, and what don’t we know, so the American people can be informed and they can make decisions on their own with respect to these issues.”

On January 30, Pruitt told the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that a “red team-blue team exercise” (an EPA-sponsored debate between climate scientists holding differing views) is under consideration. It is crucially important that such a debate take place.

Most basic assumptions underlying climate concerns are either in doubt or simply wrong

The public needs to understand that even the most basic assumptions underlying climate concerns are either in doubt or simply wrong. The campaign to force America, Canada, Europe and the rest of the world to switch from abundant and affordable coal and other fossil fuels – to expensive, unreliable, land intensive alternatives – supposedly to control Earth’s always fluctuating climate, will then finally be exposed for what it really is: the greatest, most damaging hoax in history.

Dr. Tim Ball is an environmental consultant and former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg in Manitoba. Tom Harris is executive director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition.

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Extreme cold in Mongolia

IceAgeNow - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 17:55

15 Feb 2018 – “In Mongolia, I’ve met herders fighting to keep their animals alive in an extremely harsh winter that magnifies the struggles of an already vulnerable population,” said Gwendolyn Pang, head of IFRC in East Asia.

Severe winter conditions called Dzud have followed a summer drought, leaving millions of animals at risk of starvation in Mongolia. Without the animals as a source of income, food and transport, herders and their families will remain trapped in severe conditions with a lack of basic health care and social services, or forced to migrate to Ulaanbaatar and live in extreme poverty.

http://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/press-release/ifrc-announces-help-extreme-cold-mongolia/

Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for this link

“Somehow the MSM has missed this news item,” says Argiris.

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