question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

The Massive NH Winters Set to Continue.

The previous massive winter forecasts can be found at:

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/224

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/270

The Worlds oceans as of July 2013 above.

During what will be known as the Landscheidt Minimum we have so far experienced massive winter events especially in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 3 years. This coming winter event will be no different as the solar conditions continue to look weak during the very low cycle max of solar cycle 24, and the cool PDO conditions also look to prevail.

The jet stream has been a major driver in both hemispheres for cooler winters, along with the blocking highs and more prevalent and intense low pressure systems that are inter related. The current winter in Australia has seen weekly low pressure systems dominate our weather patterns that have not been predicted by our BOM. They are not aware of the solar influence to our atmosphere it would seem.

The current EUV levels are still very low and are not expected to increase according to my prediction for at least 25 years, so we had better get used to the jet stream conditions and abundance of low pressure systems world wide. Along with this the cool phase of the PDO which normally lasts 30 years is just beginning and should encourage La Nina conditions over El Nino. The last 3 years have been 2 La Nina and 1 neutral (La Nina bias) and this next winter looks very likely to be in another La Nina condition. The current state of the northern Pacific is La Nina friendly with a warm pool off the Japanese coast set to move south which will increase the current warm pool above New Guinea. This will drive the Walker pump if conditions continue and the cool water is already amassing off the Peru coast.

The position of the NH jet stream has been influenced by the AO or NAO over the past 3-4 NH winters. Last year the neg AO directed the jet stream to be most destructive over western Europe and the USA. This year could be different in respect to where the most severe impacts will be felt. The QBO which looks to be involved with the northern polar vortex breakups is moving towards its westerly phase, this phase is not as conducive to negative AO formations, as the planetary winds are not encouraged as much to travel north to impact the polar vortex and the associated impacts on the AO. If this trend continues we would be less likely to see as much negative AO activity as last year which will shift the jet stream position to impact Eastern Europe and China.

Expectations for future NH winters should remain the same during this cycle max, but if the solar conditions deteriorate from their current low position and begin to degrade into a downward spiral towards an early cycle minimum we may see even worse conditions develop as the EUV values slump. Only a sudden sustained increase in solar output will improve conditions, that is now considered very unlikely.

Welcome to the Landscheidt Minimum, solar and climate science is set to learn a lot during this most interesting era.

 

 

sea surface temperature

The World Oceans today. 

 

 

 

 

 

Comments

Thanks Geoff for all that you

Thanks Geoff for all that you do.

I suspect that this next winter in the Northern Hemisphere will be influenced by solar activity whereas future winters will be influenced more by solar inactivity. The extreme low AO in late March occurred because of (paradoxably) a CME hit Earth's NH 2 days after the ejection and when the sun's magnetic field strength was close to zero. There is probably one more winter when this could happen to the AO before the decline to little or no sunspots. After this next winter it might be other, probably Earth born events that might effect the AO. 

I recently read the part of John Eddy's book "The sun, earth and near earth space" where he explained how magnetic flux lines of the Earth and sun join and also how the frequently occuring flux tubes influence the thermosphere. It seems that upper atmosphere dynamics is incredibly complex. I wonder how much more will be understood by the end of this grand minimum? 

Brent Walker

Geoff, Thank you so much for

Geoff,

Thank you so much for work you do to maintain such a wonderfully informative site.  

 

I am a climate science junkie.  I am also a political junkie, it is hard to see how the two of those things have anything to do with each other.  Many in our media, our government and our establishments of education would make them joined at the hip so to speak.

I am concerned.  I have lived the better part of 7 decades and see much change in the worlds climate but those changes only ever seem to last a decade or so and then return to something that  most people would refer to as normal. 

For nearly 300 years researchers have kept good records of sunspot data and weather data.  I realize that the sunspot and weather data go back even further but for 300 years they have been very good.  Knowing how sunspot records have been kept, reported or observed in the past makes me think that the last couple of decades, especially the last decade of sunspot records are not easily comparable to the past.  Small dots on the sun are recorded as sunspots that in the past would have been ignored, yet, even with researchers trying to skew the numbers up the count is reported the lowest in a hundred years.  I look and see that even using current researchers numbers they are the lowest they have been in 300 years.  I'm not a scientest.  Im a nobody who has the luxury of being alive in the computer/Internet age when our explosion of knowledge is available to anybody who wants to have it.

Anyway, back to my point.  I again am not a scientest but I see what appears to be obvious to my unlearned brain, we are headed into at the very least a Dalton type minimum.  I wish we had 300 years or more of the sun's magnetic cycle history but with what I see it doing now it is scary.  I am hoping for only a Dalton type minimum but am worried that we may be at the end, the very end of the interglacial.  If that happens of course it will make the Maunder Minimum look like mid summer on Venus. 

I will hopefully not live long enough to realize the answers to the questions in my head about all this, but, my children and grand children (18 so far) will.  I worry for them.  I would like someone who knows what they are talking about to reassure me that I am like Chicken Little and adding up the pieces but coming to the wrong conclusion.

I know it would be easy for you to say that "this site" has the answers to all my questions, perhaps it does but pouring over it and much other information leaves me still unsettled and frankly, afraid of  what the future may hold.  Actually it seems the more I understand about all this the more concerned I become.  Am I alone?  Am I really like Chicken Little?  Am I worried about nothing?

If my concerns are justified, and so far nothing has been able to disuade me of them, what do I tell my children about how to prepare for what is in my very minority opinion coming?  My friends scoff at my concerns but my children listen and respect the conclusions I have come to because they know of my ability to find truth.  The truth is I would like to be disuaded from what I believe is coming.  I would love to know your candid thoughts on these matters.  I would like to know what you are telling your children and grand children about preparing for the future.  I have been telling my children to make sure they stay south of the Ohio river :)

Again, thank you so much for the site.  I would like to say it gives me great pleasure to read it, unfortunately all it does is open my eyes and make me afraid.  I am not afraid of any warnings or predictions found here, you seem to avoid dooms day predictions but that is what I afraid of.

 

Thanks

 

Jakraig

Thanks jakraig and Brent, I

Thanks jakraig and Brent,

I am looking forward to see how the NH winter turns out, I must say I love extreme weather.

But I would not be too concerned just yet, I would be very surprised if we get more than a Dalton type minimum. If we do it will go against all the solid data I have, the Sun is coming out of its irregular path right now and should recover by SC26 and there is no repeat of this path until 2150, which will be like 1960 and nothing to concern us.

Because we are coming off a warmer base I would not expect a huge change in temperatures over the next 20-30 years. If we get more than a 2 deg decline it would be very unusual.

Any oncoming Ice Age is possible but also unlikely because the Earth is still heading for its round orbit before once again moving back to the elliptical orbit. Other orbital factors come into play which are not that well understood and there is still a chance of sliding out of the interglacial but even so it is likely to take several generations to really kick in.

The season is building with

The season is building with all sorts of predictions emerging. Here in OZ the media is going crazy on bushfires in a small region of our country blaming global warming for the incredible onslaught of destruction which will open the gates to hell.

When taking a cool/calm approach and resorting to some intelligent research we find that there has been a shift in the jet stream position this year. The jet stream has gradually been moving towards the equator since 2008 (at least) with associated low pressure systems forcing north and being increasingly obvious on our daily weather services. The jet stream this year has dragged warm air from the interior with sufficient strength to generate ideal conditions for wild fires in NSW, this is a function of low solar activity and a negative AAO and certainly nothing to do with alarmist claims of global warming. There has been practically no rise in temperature across our continent for decades and ENSO conditions have remained cool or neutral for 5 years, the oceans temps are not rising, so there is no cause for alarm.

What is needed is an informed understanding of how weather patterns change due to grand minimum solar phases which have never really been measured on this continent.

The NH winter is building a head of steam with many now predicting a severe outcome. The chances are high of many regions receiving brutal outcomes. Which regions receive the most severe winter is still unsure, by my bet is going with the westerly phase of the QBO which should hit central Europe and Russia for the biggest hits, but there could easily be a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that drives the AO deeply negative that impacts the UK and USA.

Geoff ... "many now

Geoff ... "many now predicting a severe outcome. The chances are high of many regions receiving brutal outcomes."

That´s quite a statement. Might need something to backup this, do you have any sources here or is it merely a "it´s been 4 years already so it might be a fifth"?

 

My bet is really on some solar activity the next year or so looking at the progress of SC12 & SC16:

http://solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png

My personal view is also that the PDO has about 20 yrs left i a negative state before reversing. We should be at 1959 where PDO turned up around 1975. AMO similarily is about to bottom out in 2035 (60yr cycle).

I really think that the ocean oscillations are a solar activity proxy so the sun is actually more interesting to trying to predict, I´m sure you agree.

 

So the next solar cycle is very important. Will it be even weaker the this one(SC24) or infact recovering somewhat. I sense that you, Geoff, are leaning towards a very negative outlook.

If one would be on the positive side of things the AMP event that skewed the Ap chart a couple of steps down in 2005 which impacted climate severily in 2010 might recover some in 2015 (after solar maximum).

Compare this with the 1970 AM setup.

 

One can also find some similarities with AO development in 1973 which could lead to at least a couple of quite mild  NH winters ahead.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month...

That´s about where I am right now. Future is exciting. Let´s see how it plays out.

 

Surely when dealing with

Surely when dealing with something as large as the Earth we should expect the effects of changes in solar radiation to take decades to occur.

Our atmospheric gases have a low radiating power and our period of rotation is relatively short so our planet never has the opportunity to cool as our neighbours do.

Similarly the shorter day time plus reflectivity of clouds etc means  our planet never has the opportunity to heat as our neighbours do.

It seems to me Climate "Science" takes no account of these considerations.

 

REPLY: Agree, the thermal inertia of the oceans has to be overcome.

 

 

Hi Tolou, thanks for your

Hi Tolou, thanks for your comments.

Geoff ... "many now predicting a severe outcome. The chances are high of many regions receiving brutal outcomes."

-------------------

That´s quite a statement. Might need something to backup this, do you have any sources here or is it merely a "it´s been 4 years already so it might be a fifth"?

The information I think is pretty clear. I am basing my statements on the changing position of the jet stream and the extra low pressure cells (they both go together). We are already seeing extreme weather events in both hemispheres related to the jet stream. As the winters progress during this low solar phase the jet stream is building its position and capability to affect extreme weather events. I dont expect any rest this NH winter. The mainstream media is now waking up along with some savvy meteorologists.

My bet is really on some solar activity the next year or so looking at the progress of SC12 & SC16:

SC24 is already trending less than SC5. Remember all cycles before 1945 need to be discounted by at least 22%

So the next solar cycle is very important. Will it be even weaker the this one(SC24) or in fact recovering somewhat. I sense that you, Geoff, are leaning towards a very negative outlook.

If one would be on the positive side of things the AMP event that skewed the Ap chart a couple of steps down in 2005 which impacted climate severily in 2010 might recover some in 2015 (after solar maximum).

Compare this with the 1970 AM setup.

SC25 is really still unknown. Anyone telling you otherwise does not have data. We do not always get two low cycles in a row as seen with SC20. Hopefully for the first time we will witness with our instruments what causes the second cycle to remain low (if it happens). My thoughts are if the first cycle is low enough it disrupts the Hale cycle and the following cycle is low because the magnetic fields need to realign.

The key is the strength of the single AMP event and if the timing is right, if its strong enough we have a double cycle disruption. SC20 was a very weak event and the timing a little late. SC24 is very different, but I expect a recovery at SC26.

 

Let´s say the SC25 maximum

Let´s say the SC25 maximum will be in 2023. What´s the timing with regards to the projected AM at that time?

My understanding is that there is a possibility of quite good timing this time around.

And how sensitive will the solar max timing really be in terms of "before" or "after" the AM turning point?

SC25 will not be affected by

SC25 will not be affected by an AMP event directly. The next one is 2150.

Only this planet configuration can cause the AMP event.

This time around the AMP event occurred from 2005-2010, which is effectively killing SC24 and perhaps because the Hale cycle is broken ie both solar poles are the same polarity or one pole stays around neutral which theoretically will upset SC25. The stronger AMP events have more affect on sunspots and most likely will have a greater effect on pole strength.

The AMP event creates an unusual solar orbit, the green line shows the orbit trying to escape the SSB (centre) instead of heading back towards the centre as the normal (blue) inner orbits show.

The bigger the AMP event the further the solar orbit travels away.

So I am thinking the current AMP event is strong enough to affect SC25, timing of SC25 solar max is not important, but the timing of the AMP event during SC24 was the important stage.

Thanks Geoff. Appreciated. I

Thanks Geoff.

Appreciated. I was under the impression that the AM as such would seemingly "allow" the solar activity cycle to stretch out if the timing is right, and held back if not. See e.g SC19 (about 1958):

http://www.landscheidt.info/images/200predsm.jpg

What you are saying is that only an AMP event would affect solar activity negatively otherwise it´s "business as usual" and merely up to the solar internals to randomly produce the solar output?

Yes, AM can do its thing as

Yes, AM can do its thing as long as an AMP event is not involved. Some of the largest AM peaks align with grand minima because the previous cycle was trashed.

But you will never see a high solar cycle when AM is low ie Uranus/Neptune opposition.

Jeff, this is fun. In a few

Jeff, this is fun. In a few days we'll see if the Mercury conjunction Earth opposition Saturn is responsible for the slight increase in spot activity.  If so, we should see things trend back to quiet after about the tenth of November (an esti-guess on my part).

Your site is so intriguing. I must become more familiar with the acronyms so I can understand you better (when my life has calmed down). I don’t suppose you’ve considered a glossary for the unwashed, such as myself?

I especially enjoy your contributions in pointing out the idiocy concerning global warming.  When political advantage can be had it’s amazing the bat crap invested people will spit out.

Jon Hassinger, Astrologer

Jeff your captcha thing doesn't work. It is a piece of shit.

 

Geoff we are on the same

Geoff we are on the same page in all of our opinions from solar activity and the causes for it, to why the climate changes and how it might change going forward.

 

Keep up the fight . Leif is so set in his ways , I am so glad you have a voice which runs counter to his.

 

REPLY: Thanks Salvatore, unfortunately I do not regard Svalgaard as a scientist, he is looking for data to support his agenda instead of looking at the whole picture....I suspect money is involved somewhere.

Winter has just started in

Winter has just started in the NH and already many cold records are broken, there are wild storms in the UK and Europe and half of the USA is covered in snow with many areas suffering a brutal winter already, a quick check of iceagenow.info shows some of the detail. World sea ice extent is near the highest on record and the lowest ever world temperature is record in Antarctica.

There is no doubt the world is experiencing a shift in climate as the Sun continues its weakened state of activity, but of interest this season is the position of the jet stream so far. My thinking back in July was the westerly QBO would more likely influence the AO position towards positive, which is what has occurred so far. But the jet stream position currently has been more like what we experience during a negative AO. It is obvious no one can accurately predict the precise areas that will be affected this winter and we also have the possibility of a sudden highly negative AO slump as experienced 2 years ago for a brief period.

The last couple of months have seen higher than usual (for SC24) EUV levels that so far have not made significant difference to our atmosphere. A long sustained period of higher EUV levels would seem to be necessary to turn around the current conditions but the low pressure systems and their position are the interesting areas of research worldwide at present.

My observations of the AO is

My observations of the AO is that it is closely related to solar activity especially during active periods. One could argue for a signal with some 18 days lag, looking at eg. flux(10.7) and perhaps SSN.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png
&
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Since the activity is going up, the AO is bound to follow (now until year end at least).

So if the solar activity is going to be high the coming months ahead there no need for expecting a sudden slump in AO.

 

REPLY: Over the short term your observation is holding up, but I suspect it will not hold over time as I have not come across a long term study that backs your observation. But lets assume your right... in the winter of 2011/12 the AO was mainly positive which coincides with the largest activity of SC24 so far, but there was a crash in solar activity during Jan 2012 which also coincides with the deep neg AO event (Great winter freeze 2012). This could also happen this winter as I do not expect the higher activity of the present to last. Something interesting to watch...

Long term Flux & AO

Long term Flux & AO comparison:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/f10.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month...

 

REPLY: Both graphs need to be plotted on the same axis and the AO should be not be 3 month smoothed. But even so the period of 2005 to 2009 should not have any positive AO periods going on the theory but the AO graph shows quite the opposite?.

A combination of solar output and the QBO are more likely to rule IMHO.

As I said, the correlation is

As I said, the correlation is more clear during periods of high solar output. During low activity there´s more influence of chaos, since there´s no external forcing in play.

 

REPLY: But in 2003 solar activity was still high and the AO went very negative?

If it was that easy science would be all over it...

In 2003 the solar output was

In 2003 the solar output was actually slumping compared to the 2002 peak levels.
Still high, yes, but the reduced forcing might have something to do with it. Otherwise we wouldn't have any neg. AO during solar max, which isn't what I'm saying.

     Looking at Geoff's chart

     Looking at Geoff's chart comparing SC24 to SC5 it's "deja vous  all over again"!  If the southern hemisphere of the sun 'flips' in the next year , do you think a total collapse in solar activity possible , as in the 1645 thru 1715 period (Maunder Min.) , as some scientist are speculating , or will it (the sun) gradually wind down as SC5 did ? What about a steep decline and SC24 only lasting 9 years or so and then a collapse and no SC25 ?

nick

All speculation really, but

All speculation really, but if we go on past cycles and compare the solar path around the SSB another Maunder type minimum is almost impossible. The Maunder had two extreme solar paths within 40 years whle we will just get one moderate deviation.

I say as far as future solar

I say as far as future solar activity goes nothing should be ruled out or in. Although I believe in the angular momentum theory , I do not think this is the only item that governs future solar activity.

 

I for one want to watch in addition the polarity shifts at the solar poles and see how this plays  out before being more certain about future solar activity or the lack of it.

 

Unlike Leif who thinks he knows everthing, I say there is much we do not know.

 

I also want to say that the Watts Up  With That Website is the most censored site I have ever come across and wil never post on it again.

 

REPLY: The solar poles are definitely the key to the next cycle I think but will perhaps be not so important for the rest of SC24. We have already reached cycle max and we now see a southern hemisphere chugging along with the south pole at around neutral. Anthony Watts will be judged eventually when the very science he has banned becomes mainstream. WUWT is a propaganda machine that ejects any dissenters, instead of giving them their head I think it is better to chip away using any means necessary to inform the huge reader base new emerging important areas of science.

You are so correct Geoff. 

You are so correct Geoff.  WUWT is full of BS headed by Leif. I battled him on that web-site and Anthony could not accept the fact that someone would question him and try to expose his agenda for lack of a better word.

 

 

Past history shows a clear solar/climate connection and I think this will manifest itself  in a much more substancial way once the maximum of solar cycle 24 passes by. I am anxious to see the climate response. I am expecting solar flux readings to stay sub90 and AP index readings to stay sub 5.0 once this maximum ends. I would also like to see the EUV light index to fall back to at least the 100 unit area.

 

Your work Geoff, is right on , both as far as predicting future solar activity and the climate connections.   

     Geoff....you cannot

     Geoff....you cannot believe , oh excuse me , you probably can believe the cr*p being thrown around on WUWT by Lief in comments relating to a post December 28th about Gavin Schmidt. PLEASE read it...I asked Lief , sense he was throwing around the honesty card , to be honest about his SC24 to SC14 comparison mistake...he put his smoothing plot up with just SC24 and SC14...no SC5 ...and then blew me off !!  A  Mr. Vukcevic has got him ALL riled up....kinda interesting and comical .

nick

Svalgaard will have to come

Svalgaard will have to come around if SC24 continues as it has, the fact is SC14 is nothing like SC24 and no weak arguments can take this fact away. Sure SC5 is open to question if using the SIDC version but I think the Group Sunspot Number has a lot more data from many more observers even with the missing days. The GSN record is now looking like the better record for the entire series and conveniently Svalgaard ignores the new evidence that backs up the GSN and still today says the GSN is junk. We also need to consider every proxy record shows SC5 in line with the sunspot record.

Svalgaard's prediction for SC24 will probably be too high, he also said we were not entering a grand minimum and that SC25 would be big. You would need to trawl through the WUWT pages to find these statements but they are there. But Watts continues the brown nose treatment as it helps his traffic and ideals.

 

We saw what happened to the solarcycle24 forum where Svalgaard and a maddog moderator practically killed all traffic...WUWT will eventually follow the same outcome when people wake up.

 

Lots of talk about the polar

Lots of talk about the polar vortex, but in reality the AO/NOA is barely negative during this wild NH winter extreme. The low pressure systems along with an extreme high above Japan and corresponding planetary waves have been the main contributors to the big weather events.

What is interesting is that a mainly positive AO/NAO is still witnessing massive events over the USA and UK region.

Jeff, a large event that is

Jeff, a large event that is recieving little attention is the lack of rainfall here in California.  I don't know if you pay attention to

this, but usually we are deluged, expecially in January.  We have had one good storm a month ago and other than that, no rain.  Very unusual.  Jon Hassinger

Jeff your captcha thing doesn't work. It is a piece of shit.

 

I am frustrated because solar

  1. I am frustrated because solar activity has been so much above the parameters that I think are needed to have a significant climatic impact, along with the secondary factors which I think will come about as a result of prolonged minimum solar activity.
  2. Until the maximum of solar cycle 24 ends and how quiet thereafter , I can’t begin to know just how great or small the solar /climate connection may or may not be. I am still of the opinion that prolonged solar minimum conditions will resume sooner rather then later and maybe we can find out.
  3. On the other hand if one looks at the aerosol thickness charts , it shows very minor aerosols have been present in the atmosphere for quite some time, ENSO has been neutral, PDO cool, AMO warmish, no major volcanic activity, while SOLAR has been moderate to active for the past two years, while CO2 is still increasing, and yet as is pointed out in this article and others no temperature increase.
  4. So I would say on balance it does not look to good for those that believe in AGW.
  5. In addition the basic assumptions AGW theory is based on have not happened as far as I know.
  6. Those being a lower tropospheric hotspot due to a positive CO2/water vapor feedback in the lower troposphere in the tropics, and a more positive AO due to stratospheric cooling being greater near the polar regions then the lower latitudes, which by the way equates to less extremes in weather and a more zonal flow. Those two cornerstones of AGW theory have not happened at all.
  7. What is so amazing is AGW crowd is trying to say their theory called for a more meridional atmospheric circulation more extremes in climate all along, a bold face LIE. They called for the opposite to take place. Now they come up with the ridiculous low Arctic Sea Ice due to global warming they predicted as a cause of a more meridional atmospheric circulation just like they predicted, which they did NOT predict. Just lies to try to look right in the face of just being plain wrong.
    Add to this the fact that they say the stratosphere overall should be cooling and humidity in all levels of the atmosphere should be on the rise. Not happening.
  8. Not to mention if anything the last 100 years of climate data shows one of the most stable climatic periods over the last 20000 years.
  9. So things are not adding up for the AGW side, while the factors I am calling for to cause global cooling have yet to really start in earnest, that being very low prolonged solar conditions and the associated secondary effects.
  10.  
  11.  
  12. As far as this winter the ONLY reason for the cold outbreaks is the arrangement of the jet stream with a persistent strong ridge in the eastern Pacific, causing deep troughs to occur into the Western to Central U.S.A bringing very cold outbreaks South from the Arctic, it has nothing to do with global cooling or global warming.
 If the cold was due to global cooling the Arctic Index would be much more negative  according to my way of thinking, this year the AO has been positive. So this is simply randomness nothing more and nothing less, and all climatic signs for the past two years are stuck in NEUTRAL, next to no trends can be detected of late, only time wil tell. So I would say both sides have nothing to crow about when it comes to their outlooks for the climate going forward coming to fruition.  Waiting for prolonged solar minimum conditions to return, then we wil see who is correct.
    1.  

Geoff, your post is so

Geoff, your post is so correct dated 01/08/2014.

I can understand your

I can understand your frustration Salvatore. I suspect this is because you are not looking at the right information. Sunspots are magnetic storms. But not all magnetic storms are the same. Solarham.com lists 7 types but even within each type the magnetic strength of the sunspot is not necessarily related to its size. Also magnetic fields can result from coronal holes and there is residual magnetism which waxes and wanes particularly during polar reversals. Magnetic fields are created by electrical currents so, in a way, the absolute magnetic field strength of the sun should be the primary indicator of the strength of the electric currents circulating within the sun. Electricity is the strong force that Einstein talked about. (Gravity is the weak force). Electric fields exist right through the Galaxy because everyware there are highly energetic charged particles wizzing around at speeds close to the speed of light. 

Now look at the data supplied by the Wilcox Solar Observatory on the sun's absolute magnetic strength.


http://wso.stanford.edu/

(I will ask Geoff if he can upload my graph of it to the website). What is very striking is that this current solar maximum has extremely weak absolute magnetic strength even though the referenced SIDC sunspot numbers are comaratively high at present. This is unusual although significant divergance has occurred in both solar cycles 21 and 23 during the maximum part of those cycles. Note just how weak the absolute magnetic strength is in this whole cycle! NASA seems to think it will be even lower in cycle 25. 

I suspect that if you recalibrate your work from sunspot activity to absolute magnetic strength you will get better correlations with your climate parammeters.

REPLY: Interesting graph Brent, especially the deviation during the second half of SC23.

Brent Walker

Yes the second half of cycle

Yes the second half of cycle 23 is weird. The absolute magnetic strength of the sun stayed higher than it should have given the reduced sunspot activity. Possibly the peturbation of the sun's orbit around the SSB during that period had something to do with it. But now, it seems to me, that it is diverging to lower strength than the sunspot activity would indicate. It will be interesting to see if this lasts.

Brent Walker

Brent I agree and for that

Brent I agree and for that reason I  think the moist important measure of solar actiivty as far as effects on the earth  are, is the AP index.  I think that index needs to stay below 5.0 , some 99+% of the time with some isolated strong spikes to get maximum  solar minimum effects here on earth, in the way of increaed geological activity.

I think this web-site should

I think this web-site should try to really take Anthony and Leif to task and expose them for what they are which in the case of Anthony will not allow anyone to argue against  Leif. While Leif is clueless when it comes to solar/climate connections has has NO alternative explanations to account for why the climate changes let along why the earth has had and will have glacial and inter glacial periods.

 

He has nothing to offer other then to say you are wrong, he is wrong, this one is wrong etc etc.

 

They are now silencing Nicola Scafetta on that web-site , just look at the message board under solar tides, which came out Jan 19 or so. Pathetic , while Leif can rant and rant his jibberish.

 

Once the sun goes back to prolonged solar conditions I am confident Leif  and others will be the ones on the out side looking in.

REPLY: I am happy to discuss the antics of those aligned with WUWT. I started a forum topic HERE that deals with some of the PRP issues...but feel free to start your own forum topic.

Geoff I have just updated the

Geoff I have just updated the absolute montly mean solar magnetic strength graph I provided earlier in this post. The sun's mean absolute magnetic strength has stayed pathetically weak during these last 4 months. It diverges even further from the (SIDC) reported solar sunspot activity.  Either the sunspot activity is soon going to fall substantially or the sun's magnetic activity is going to soon pick up. I wouldn't bet on the latter! So I think we are moving into very interesting times. 

I have just returned from a month in New York, Washington, Quebec, Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. Lots of moaning about the brutal winter. Even the maple trees were over a month behind producing sap to make maple syrup!

REPLY: Sounds interesting Brent...if you like send me the graph and I will post it here.

Thanks Brent..

Brent Walker

Brent  keep the updates

Brent  keep the updates coming.  This is interesting.

PDO and ENSO? There is much

PDO and ENSO? There is much conjecture on which driver dominates the other. I think there is evidence of both taking a leading role but overall the PDO IMO is the main influence on the Pacific. Observations over the past year show the PDO  moving to a positive state well before any El Niño metrics were observed. The water around Japan switched from warm to cool many months ago and explain the changes in wind strength and direction across the equator. The trade winds are the key and ultimate controller of ENSO.

At present the likely hood of a strong El Niño developing over the next NH winter are slim IMO.

Many thanks go to Carl's brother Dave for providing the Domain, Server and Software.