What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

New paper casts much doubt on pre 1848 Wolf records.

A big day yesterday with the release of a new paper that cements the accuracy of the Group Sunspot Number record, and also casts much doubt on the Wolf series before 1848. The pre 1848 Wolf (SIDC) record needs to be reduced by 20%. This will put much pressure on those trying to re write the TSI and SSN records to suit their agenda, the new very accurate data shows us the solar record does indeed match the world temperature record. Below are my comments posted on tallblokes post on this topic.

SC5/6 do not have the larger variances between the GSN and WSN so this study will have little affect on these values.

I have been arguing this point with Svalgaard for years, he is indeed in trouble now with real data again backing up the GSN (Group Sunspot Number).

Svalgaard leans on Wolf’s method of using magnetic needle readings on earth as a reliable proxy to reconstruct the pre 1848 values of the WSN (Wolf Sunspot Number), but Wolf got it wrong with SC5 which was a lot higher than the now finished value as excepted by the SIDC. This came about from sunspot records found by Wolfer at a later date showing the proxy record is unreliable.

Svalgaard has been attempting to change the world with his sunspot workshops, one of his main thrusts is to discredit the GSN record as it does not fit with his theories. He even has Schatten onboard who was one of the co authors of the GSN. Svalgaard says the GSN does not allow for the reduced counting method of Wolf who used a threshold to count spots, and Schatten conveniently has no memory of how he and Hoyt utilized Wolf’s count values. But if you look at the observer notes in the GSN record it shows clearly that H&S WERE aware of Wolf’s reduced counting method. I have not heard a response from Hoyt.

I pressed Svalgaard on this several times on WUWT without a proper reply and I also suggested that the WSN has inconsistencies before 1848 and that it should also be looked at during his “workshops”. He declined saying the early WSN record was correct.

He will now be forced to look at the pre 1848 WSN values or be viewed as a zealot.

The post 1945 WSN values (SIDC) also need to be revisited. There is no doubt the record is too high because of the weighting system introduced by Waldmeier.

The SC24 record is now very closely following the GSN record for SC5.

Note. The Layman’s Sunspot Count has the Waldmeier factor removed and also allows for the higher speck ratio experienced during grand minimum type cycles.


Another new paper by Lockwood directly challenges Svalgaards attempt to flatten the solar record, the data is building against Svalgaard's spurious claims.

Many thanks go to Carl's brother Dave for providing the Domain, Server and Software.