question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

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Updated: 17 min 38 sec ago

Colorado snowstorm knocks out power to 45,000 homes

Tue, 10/03/2017 - 12:18

“Welcome to winter, right?” 
_______________________

2 Oct 17 – Beginning around 8 p.m. on Sunday night, the power outages affected nearly 45,000 homes in the mountain region, according to vaildaily.com. As of 11 a.m. more than 10,000 homes still remained without power.

The heavy, wet snow created havoc on mountain roads.

Closures on Interstate 70 at the Eisenhower-Johnson Memorial Tunnel and Vail Pass left drivers marooned in Georgetown and at a shelter in Vail, which soon filled to capacity.

“It’s been a long morning,” said Colorado State Patrol Sergeant Patrick Williams. “Welcome to winter, right?”

Steamboat Springs reported 19 inches (48 cm) of snow, while Arapahoe Basin and Loveland, who are in a race to be the first resorts to open for the season, both received 17 inches (43 cm). Both Vail and Copper Mountain reported 12 inches (30 cm) of snow.

Red Cliff, south of Vail, reported 14 inches (36 cm), while Winter Park reported nearly 10 inches (25 cm).

I guess children in Colorado are going to know what snow looks like after all.

See photos:
http://snowboarding.transworld.net/news/dump-alert-colorado-gets-hit-snow/

http://www.vaildaily.com/news/snowstorm-creates-havoc-on-mountain-roads-power-outages-in-45000-high-country-homes/

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/weather/2017/10/02/fall-storm-brings-up-18-inches-snow-colorado-peaks/723996001/

Thanks to Stephen Bird and Vance von Raab for these links

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Funding the arts – or hurricane recovery

Mon, 10/02/2017 - 20:14

“Would it really be so terrible if Congress trimmed funding for the National Endowment for the Arts?” asks Paul Driessen. “NEA money keeps the arts alive, say some, but would only buy a thousand Tesla S P90D electric cars. On the other hand, if just 1,500 ultra-rich culture devotees ponied up just $100,000 apiece, they’d fully fund the entire NEA program.

“More to the point, rebuilding Puerto Rico alone will top $30 billion; repairing damage from Harvey and Irma will exceed $150 billion; and the hurricane season isn’t over yet. Might it be time to set some spending priorities? Or is the NEA just one more of those federal programs that President Reagan called the closest thing on Earth to eternal life?”

 

Funding the arts – or hurricane recovery

With only so much taxpayer cash, what should our priorities be in this year of big hurricanes?

By Paul Driessen    

A couple of friends recently said it was terrible that some in Congress and the White House could even consider reducing National Endowment for the Arts funding. It’s a critical program, they feel, essential for the very survival of many community and even big-time theaters, orchestras and other arts programs. The thought of trimming the NEA shows a low regard for this important component of civilized society.

For centuries, Kings and princes funded composers, artists, symphonies, operas and artwork, especially back in the days when royalty controlled the lands and wealth – and paid their peasants a pittance (if at all). Letting them listen to or gaze on some of the artistic creations helped keep them happy in an era when illiterate serfs were happy dreaming of being rewarded in the afterlife.

The National Endowment for the Arts was launched in 1965 and has enjoyed steady funding by taxpayers. Its $150 million 2017 budget covers offices, staff salaries, and numerous grants and contracts.

The Los Angeles Times opined in March of this year that the NEA’s budget is “minuscule compared to other federal expenditures.” $150 million “won’t even get you a Picasso at auction.” It would only buy a thousand Tesla Model S P90D electric cars. The Defense Department receives 3,600 times more money; maybe the Pentagon should economize on toilet paper, the column suggested.

All of this raises compelling issues that could generate interesting congressional or talk radio discussions.

America is the land of millionaires and billionaires – folks who can and do afford Picassos, (taxpayer-subsidized) Teslas, and box seats at symphonies and operas that average taxpayers rarely attend. If just 300 Hollywood, Silicon Valley, social media and other ultra-rich culture devotees ponied up just $500,000 apiece, they’d fully fund the entire NEA program. So would 1,500 of them giving just $100,000 each, instead of buying yet another mansion, yacht, private jet or vacation island.

While the Defense Department is a favorite target for liberal pundits, defending the homeland is one of the most critical roles of government – and one that citizens, communities and even states cannot do on their own. Like it or not, we remain embroiled in conflicts overseas, and bad actors Iran and North Korea are on the verge of getting nuclear weapons and delivery systems.

Security expert Cliff May reports that Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuelan dictatorship (likely with Cuban help) is providing passports to a host of Jihadi warriors, so that they can utilize the socialist-Islamist-narco-terrorist-gun-running alliance more effectively to ply their lethal trade here in the United States. National Counterterrorism Center director Nicholas Rasmussen warns that these and other terrorists may soon employ drones to drop grenades or spread poison gases on crowds of Americans.

Gunning people down in California, Florida, Tennessee and Texas, bombing the Boston Marathon, slamming jets full of fuel and passengers into NYC and DC buildings, mowing pedestrians down with vehicles, and murdering police officers reflect pure evil. It will be worse when more ISIS butchers arrive on our shores. We should cut DoD waste, but never protections for our families, lives and freedoms.

The LA Times article was written five months before Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria visited death and rampant destruction on Texas, Florida, Georgia, Puerto Rico and other communities.

The question now is, how does NEA funding stack up against the urgent need to restore electricity to Puerto Rico and rebuild homes, businesses, infrastructures and lives in hundreds of badly impacted neighborhoods? Indeed, how does funding a vast host of federal programs stack up against that need?

President Obama was lucky. He presided over two-thirds of the longest Category 3-5 hurricane drought in U.S. history: eight years out of a record twelve (even as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels kept rising). How he would have handled even one, to say nothing of three back-to-back monster storms, we will never know. Nor will we know how he’d have handled these budget questions, though we can guess.

Just recall how many “shovel-ready jobs” were actually created by $1 trillion in stimulus funding.

Of course, this wasn’t the first time the USA was hammered by several monster hurricanes in a very short span. 1879, 1893, 1909, 1933, 1954 and 2005 come to mind. And those are just the big ones that pounded the U.S. mainland. This year’s hurricane season isn’t over yet, so disaster preparedness remains vital.

Thankfully, this year FEMA was on the job in record time. However, rebuilding Puerto Rico alone will top $30 billion, following the worst storm to hit the island since 1928. Repairing damage from Harvey and Irma will exceed $150 billion, Moody’s Analytics estimates.

Families will have to dip into savings and do a lot of the work themselves. However, the financial burden will also be shouldered by private insurance companies, or by the federal government’s flood insurance program, and by FEMA and other disaster assistance loans and grants. Still more will be covered by hundreds of public and private companies, churches, synagogues and nonprofit charities, and direct citizen donations. JJ Watt raised $30 million via YouCaring.com, and Gleaning for the World has been typically efficient in shipping life-giving supplies to Texas, Florida and the Caribbean. Please give!

Congress has appropriated $15 billion in hurricane disaster relief, with more to come for those areas and the islands. Legislators assume and hope that funds will somehow materialize to cover this – and all the other programs that President Reagan liked to quip were the closest thing on Earth to eternal life.

Complying with myriad federal regulations costs us nearly $2 trillion a year – more than all personal and corporate taxes paid to Uncle Sam. If more of those rules are trimmed, and a long-overdue tax overhaul ultimately brings in many billions in additional tax revenues as the economy is reinvigorated, budgetary needs could be met and the private sector could weigh in with yet more help. Here’s another idea.

Federal and state laws could require that anyone from hurricane-impacted areas who expects another welfare or unemployment check must help clean up, repair and rebuild their communities. Many or most people on these “entitlement” rolls are strong and able-bodied. By serving their communities and country, they would learn new skills, find new friends, mentors and role models, and embark on paths to lifetime achievement. Indeed, the return to “workfare” and responsible citizenship should be nationwide.

As George Mason University professor Walter Williams observes, “The No. 1 problem among blacks is effects stemming from a very weak family structure.” This is “a legacy of the welfare state ushered in by the War on Poverty” and continued by “politicians, civil rights leaders and academics who assert that every problem confronting blacks is a result of a legacy of slavery and discrimination.”

“Children from fatherless homes are likelier to drop out of high school, die by suicide, have behavioral disorders, join gangs, commit crimes and end up in prison,” he states. “They are also likelier to live in poverty-stricken households.” Indeed, that holds true for white, Hispanic and other ethnic groups.

Williams also points out that federal spending in 2017 will top $4 trillion. At $1 trillion, Social Security will take up most of it. Defense ($598 billion), Medicare ($582 billion) and Medicaid ($404 billion) are the next-largest expenditures. Other federal social spending – on food stamps, unemployment compensation, child nutrition, child tax credits, supplemental security income and student loans – total roughly $550 billion. In fact, social spending by Congress consumes about two-thirds of the federal budget, he notes.

Congress doesn’t get this money from the tooth fairy or Santa Claus, Williams concludes. It uses “threats, intimidation and coercion to confiscate” money from one American, to give it to another American.

As the nation marshals its resources to rebuild shattered communities in this latest year of big hurricanes – and Congress and the White House begin deliberating major changes in the Tax Code – it’s a perfect time to begin debating all these issues, reexamining our priorities, and putting America back to work: for a regular paycheck … or in return for continued welfare or unemployment checks.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org), and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death and other books on public.

 

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Is this how Stonehenge was built?

Mon, 10/02/2017 - 18:10

Nothing to do with climate, but I found it fascinating.

This man has figured out how to move 20-ton blocks by hand.

Thanks to Winona Campbell for this video

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Heavy snow for Alberta and Saskatchewan

Mon, 10/02/2017 - 12:48

Up to 12 inches of snow in southwestern Saskatchewan – Hazardous winter conditions expected – Highway closures likely

Monday 02 October 2017 (Excerpts)

The first winter storm of the season to affect southern Alberta will also hammer the southwestern corner of Saskatchewan today.

Heavy wet snow that began overnight will continue to fall throughout the day, with accumulations approaching 30 cm (11.8″) expected along the Trans-Canada highway from west of Swift Current to the Alberta border including the Cypress Hills area. The snow will be accompanied by northerly winds gusting to 80 km/h (49.7 mph), which will result in white-out conditions at times. Highway closures in this area are likely, and motorists are advised to postpone travel until the storm has passed.

Snow will continue tonight, with a further 15 cm (5.9″) expected. The snow will gradually taper off on Tuesday.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Visibility will be suddenly reduced to near zero at times in heavy snow and blowing snow.

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?sk5#1014213851444725527201710020501ww1373cwwg (also sk4 in the adress link for the Shaunavon – Maple Creek – Val Marie – Cypress Hills warning)

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html

Thanks to Terry Homeniuk for these links

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Heavy snow for Montana and Wyoming

Sun, 10/01/2017 - 20:05

Snowfall accumulations – 6 to 24 inches – Tree and power line damage expected – Roads impassable in some areas
(Excerpts)
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
725 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON…

.A potent storm system from the Canadian Rockies will sweep across the region through Tuesday.

Southwest Phillips-Including the city of Zortman

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY…

* ACCUMULATIONS…Snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches.

* IMPACTS…The heavier snow expected in the higher elevations of the Little Rocky Mountains will combine with the strong winds
to create reduced visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel keep an extra flashlight, food, and
water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
……………………………….
West Glacier Region-
638 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Below 4000 feet total snow accumulations of 1
to 3 inches are expected. Above 4000 feet 3 to 5 inches, and localized amounts up to 15 inches across the highest terrain.
Travelers over Marias Pass should plan for low visibility due to snow and blowing snow with 8 to 12 inches total accumulation by
Tuesday morning.

* WHERE…Bad Rock Canyon, Essex, Highway 83 Bigfork to Swan Lake, Marias Pass, and Polebridge.

………………………….

Elkhead and Park Mountains-Flat Tops-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
621 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT…

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE…Columbine, Hahns Peak, Toponas, Buford,
Trappers Lake, Manila, and Dutch John.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION…12 to 20 inches.

* VISIBILITY…Less than 1/2 mile at times.

* IMPACTS…The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the
snow on tree limbs and power lines.
…………..

Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
621 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 9000 FEET…

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE…Vail Pass, Independence Pass.

* TIMING…Snow…heavy at times…will continue through Monday evening.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION…6 to 10 inches.

* SNOW LEVEL…10,000 feet then lowering to near 8000 feet by Monday morning.

* VISIBILITY…Less than 1/2 mile at times.

* IMPACTS…The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the
snow on tree limbs and power lines. Strong winds will lead to blowing snow, reduced visibility, and additional power outages.

……………………………..
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
359 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…Wintry weather coming to the northern Colorado mountains tonight and Monday…

.A weather system being driven by a powerful Pacific jet stream will remain over Colorado tonight and Monday, bringing widespread precipitation to the north central Colorado mountains. Snow levels are expected to drop to 7,500 feet or lower near the Wyoming border, and 8,500 to 9,000 feet along the I-70 Corridor by tonight. Snowfall will be moderate to heavy at times, especially over Grand, Jackson and western Larimer Counties. The storm system is expected to be moving out of the state by Monday afternoon with snowfall rates decreasing at that time.

West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-Including the cities of East Slopes Park and Northern Gore Ranges, Gore Pass, Rabbit Ears Pass, Cameron Pass, Laramie and Medicine Bow Mountains, Rabbit Ears Range, Rocky Mountain National Park, and Willow Creek Pass
………………………..
359 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT…

* TIMING…Snow along with embedded thunderstorms will continue this evening and become heavier through tonight. Precipitation
should decrease by Monday evening.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…8 to 16 inches with locally higher
amounts possible.

* WIND/VISIBILITY…As low as one quarter mile during periods of heavy snow.
………………………………….
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
258 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Cascade-Judith Basin-Fergus-Meagher-Including the following locations Great Falls, Cascade, Belt, Kings Hill Pass, Raynesford, Stanford, Hobson, Lewistown, Winifred, Lewistown Divide, Grass Range, Martinsdale, and White Sulphur Springs
258 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO NOON MDT TUESDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on the plains, with 12 to 24 inches in the mountains, are expected.

* WHERE…Cascade, Judith Basin, Fergus and Meagher Counties.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Tree and power line damage expected.

……………………………………….
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
258 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Northern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Glacier-Toole-Eastern Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Including the following locations Logan Pass, Marias Pass, Browning, Heart Butte, Cut Bank, Shelby, Sunburst, Brady, Conrad, Bynum, Choteau, and Augusta
258 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute on Monday. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches on the plains, with 10 to 20 inches in the mountains, are expected.

* WHERE…Northern Rocky Mountain Front, Eastern Glacier, Toole, Eastern Pondera and Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Significant reductions in visibility along with tree and power line damage are expected.

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
…………………………………………..
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
258 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Hill-Chouteau-Liberty-Blaine-Eastern Teton-Including the following locations Havre, Rocky Boy, Rudyard, Fort Benton, Carter, Big Sandy, Chester, Whitlash, Chinook, Harlem, Hays, Fairfield, and Dutton
258 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Total snow accumulations of 4 to 12 inches on the plains, with 12 to 24 inches in the mountains, are expected.

* WHERE…Hill, Chouteau, Liberty, Blaine and Eastern Teton Counties.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Tree and power line damage expected.
……………………………….
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
258 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Central and Southern Lewis and Clark-Jefferson-Broadwater-Including the following locations MacDonald Pass, Rogers Pass, Boulder Hill, Elk Park Pass, and Homestake Pass
258 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO NOON MDT TUESDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, are expected.

* WHERE…Central and Southern Lewis and Clark, Jefferson and Broadwater Counties.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Isolated tree and power line damage expected.
…………………………….
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
233 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…Significant Accumulating Snowfall Likely Over the Higher Elevations of Southeast Wyoming Tonight Through Monday Night…

Sierra Madre Range-Snowy Range-Including the cities of Centennial and Albany
233 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT…

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…12 to 16 inches, especially above 9000 feet in the Snowy and Sierra Madre mountain ranges.
Locally higher amounts are possible.

Those planning outdoor activities in the Snowy and Sierra Madre mountain ranges should be prepared for hazardous winter conditions.

…………………………..
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
233 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…Significant Accumulating Snowfall Likely Over the Higher Elevations of Southeast Wyoming Tonight Through Monday Night…

South Laramie Range-Including the cities of Buford, Pumpkin Vine, and Vedauwoo

233 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT…

The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snowfall, which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT Monday night.

TIMING…Periods of snow will be possible this evening, but the snow will be on the increase late tonight, and may become heavy at times Monday before tapering off Monday night.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…6 to 9 inches possible, with highest amounts over the Interstate 80 summit.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY…Visibility may be reduced below one half mile at times in falling snow.

* IMPACTS…Mainly to travel, especially over the Interstate 80 Summit between Laramie and Cheyenne. Roads could become slick and snow packed along with areas of low visibility.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Winter%20Storm%20Warning

Thanks to Tom0Mason for this link

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Up to 16 inches of snow for Colorado mountains

Sun, 10/01/2017 - 14:02

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1052 AM Sun Oct 1 2017

(Excerpts)
Wintry weather coming to the northern Colorado mountains tonight and Monday…

Snow levels are expected to drop to 7,500 to 8,000 feet near the Wyoming border, and 8,500 to 9,000 feet along the I-70 Corridor by tonight.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…8 to 16 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

* WIND/VISIBILITY…As low as one quarter mile during periods of heavy snow.

* IMPACTS…Travel conditions may be slow and hazardous this afternoon through tonight and Monday.

Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel…keep an extra flashlight… food…and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Winter%20Storm%20Warning

Thanks to Don Bishop and Tom0Mason for this link

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Don’t let them con you – It has been cooling for 8,000 years

Sun, 10/01/2017 - 12:20

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Expanded record of temperature change since the end of the last glacial period

Source of graph (I added the red arrow):
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ice_Age_Temperature.png

Thanks to J.H. Walker for these links

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Fake weather reporting?

Fri, 09/29/2017 - 20:36

Look at these two contrasting reports and see what you think.

“I wonder which side of the “Climate Wars” Intellicast weather service is on?” asks reader. “Here is the forecast map for high temperatures today from Intellicast:”

“Notice the temperatures are quite seasonal, but the color scale chosen is quite inappropriate for North America in September. We are not likely to need to depict temperatures in the -30 F range any time soon, but the range chosen makes 60s F orange and 70s F Red.”

“We’re burning up!”

“Contrast this to the U.S. National Weather Service map for the same date:”

“I believe these colors more accurately convey the “feel” of a fall day.”

“Kudos to the NWS.”

Fake weather reporting? You decide. But even if the words are true, I think the Intellicast graphic is at the very least very misleading.

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Hurricane Irma and the sensitive issue of ‘climate change’

Fri, 09/29/2017 - 17:50

“Nothing is “man-made!“ Mankind can only watch the development of hurricanes, can only bear the forces they create but cannot alter them. We are helpless creatures that have to live with nature’s forces.” – By Dr. Wolfgang Thüne
____________________________

Hurricane Irma and the sensitive issue of ‘climate change’

By Dr. Wolfgang Thüne (Translated by Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser)

Hurricane Irma over the Virgin Islands at peak intensity on September 6, 2017 (Public Domain – MODIS image captured by NASA’s Aqua satellite)

Since time immemorial, the weather has been a common theme among people. That was the case a thousand years ago and modern newscasts would be incomplete without weather information.

In the past, when humans only experience the weather as it developed overhead, the modern communication facilities bring the most remote weather phenomena into our living quarters. However, that’s only so for the most unusual, nerve-tickling weather events.

Like for other news: bad (weather) news are good news (for the media)!

To be worthy of top-line news, the weather has to be „extreme.“ As some media reported here (in Germany) the “low pressure storm “Sebastian“ devastated parts of Germany. More serious reports simply stated that the first fall storm of this season was experienced in northern and northwestern Germany.

Well, the USA had better things to report. With cyclone season in full swing in the region around the Gulf of Mexico, the recent storms “Harvey“ and “Irma“ were of quite different magnitudes than “Sebastian.“ Consequently, they provided much better material for publicity and political messages. They were charged with religious interpretations such as work of “God’s hand.“ The actress and Trump-foe Jennifer Lawrence stated “it would be difficult in these storms not to see a divine chagrin over the current conditions.“

However, the constant media reports showed one unmistaken truth: the utter lack of control humans have in regards to such natural forces and the uncertainties to predict such, even on short term horizons.

Cyclones develop over warm Oceans, not by accident but for a reason!

Tropical cyclones form commonly over the Atlantic Ocean between the months of June and November. They are being tracked by the National Hurricane Centre of the U.S. In that time of year, water (surface) temperatures are often exceeding 26 °C. This is one condition but not all that’s required. What’s getting tropical cyclones going are tropical waves (easterly waves), that move with the trade-winds at 10 to 15 degree latitude in a 700 to 500 hPa (air pressure) environment. That causes instability with the air being rapidly pulled upwards, like in a tornado, that releases energy and is the cause of the rotation. That’s how cyclones are formed. Initially the satellite pictures show clumps of clouds. The big puzzle is to figure out how they will develop and the path they may take. The study of Atlantic hurricanes began already with the discovery of America by Columbus in 1492. There is nothing in that caused by humans.

Regardless, a “villain“ must be there: “the current heavy-weight champion of climate sceptics, AKA U.S. President Donald Trump.” He is viewed as the villain extraordinaire who refuses to sign the “Paris Accord” of 2015. For him, the reasons of climate change are unproven and he is absolutely right on that, even though he cannot prove it with [scientific] arguments. However, that would be quite easy. He would only need to use the definition of “climate” to point out that a construct developed from the weather could never influence the weather. As a consequence, neither the “climate” nor its “change” is natural developments but strictly sliding values resulting from the change of the weather.

Indirectly, Trump gets support from Hockey-stick-Curve-Inventor Michael Mann. The latter wrote in the Washington Post “Hurricanes get their energy from the warm water of the oceans…”. Indeed, the process of water evaporation consumes energy (that lowers the water temperature). This energy is contained in the water vapor that, upon condensation, releases it in form of kinetic energy. The tropical hurricanes get their immense energy from that process.

Everything else is nothing more than fortune-telling. Hurricanes in the Atlantic/Caribbean, taifuns in the Pacific, and blizzards in North America are all natural weather events. If they appear to deviate from ficticious “norms”, the suddenly are called man-made or –influenced.

Nothing is “man-made!“ Mankind can only watch the development of hurricanes, can only bear the forces they create but cannot alter them. We are helpless creatures that have to live with nature’s forces.

Without nature we’re nothing!

This statement is especially true for the atmosphere, the layer of air around the earth. The air is vital for all life. It is strictly natural and a mixture of gases that acts as an (energy) transport medium with constant mixing. That gave rise to the name troposphere. For the clouds not to grow limitless into the sky, the troposphere has a “lid” termed tropopause. Practically, the tropopause is an invisible boundary that abruptly limits the vertical movements of the air. That can easily be observed from the formation of anvil-shaped (Cumulonimbus) thunder-clouds.

Near the earth’s poles, the troposphere reaches a height of approximately 8 km, at the equator up to 18 km. The troposphere contains around 90% of all air and has a median height of 12 km. Essentially all weather events take place in the troposphere and below the tropopause.

The earth’s envelope of air is pressed against its surface by the force of gravity. Per square meter that is a pressure equivalent of 10 metric tons per square meter or 10 million tons per square kilometer. For the entire earth surface of 510 million square kilometer, that comes to a total weight of 5.1 trillion (5.1 x 10^12) tons. To get that kind of mass to move requires an enormous amount of energy that only nature — not mankind – can provide. Nature does that via radiation from the sun.

The envelope of air around the earth, approximately 12 km high, is nothing but a thin skin, i.e. 1/1000 of the diameter of planet earth of 12,000 km diameter. Is it conceivable that carbon dioxide (amounting to 0.04% of its composition) could determine its surface temperature via a greenhouse gas effect (warming of the surface) that despite having an “open window” (meaning transparency) to radiation of 7-13 micro-meter energy to the universe?

The sun’s radiation energy received at the upper limit of the atmosphere on earth, some 150 million km (approx. 100 million miles) from the source, is still 1361 W/m^2. This value is termed the “solar constant” or solar irradiance. As the earth path is not a circle but elliptical, the distance to the sun varies. It is the closest to the sun, termed perihelion, at the beginning of January, when the distance is 147.1 million km. When furthest from the sun, at the aphelion in early July, the distance is 152.1 million km. That makes the aphelion-perihelion difference 5 million km. As the radiation received varies with the square of the distance from the source, earth receives 1412 W/m^2 in January and at the beginning of July only 1321 W/m^2. The seasonal variation of irradiance is therefore 91 W/m^2. In other words, the “solar constant” is no constant at all as it varies with the seasons.

The seasonal temperature variation does not follow the changing distance of the earth to the sun. The increase in irradiance of 96 W/m^2 between July and January cannot prevent the cooling of the earth in that period (in the northern hemisphere). With that in mind, how can the earth get a “radiation forcing” of between 3 and 10 degrees from CO2 that, summed up over 150 years is claimed to be 3 W/m^2? This claim is entirely unproven. Worse yet, it is impossible!

If a pail has a hole then it loses the water in it. As long as the atmosphere has an “open radiation window” to space, the earth loses heat via the outgoing infrared radiation.

The seasonal temperature variation depends on the inclination of the earth’s axis to the ecliptic (path around the sun) of 23.5 degrees arc. Following the winter solstice the sun rises higher and higher in the (northern) firmament. The days get longer and with that the total daily radiation energy increases resulting in higher temperatures. At the time of the summer solstice, the days are 16 hours long with the nights at 8 hours. At Christmas time it’s the opposite, 16 hours night and 8 hours daylight. No amount of “greenhouse gases” can change that. Viewing the earth as a greenhouse is false!

By Dr. Wolfgang Thüne;
http://www.derwettermann.de/hurrikan-irma-und-das-heikle-thema-klimawandel-2.html .

Translated by Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser

_________________________________________________

Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser is a professional scientist with a Ph.D. in chemistry from the Technical University, Munich, Germany. He has worked as a research scientist and project chief at Environment Canada‘s Canada Centre for Inland Waters for over 30 years and is currently Director of Research at TerraBase Inc. He is author of nearly 300 publications in scientific journals, government and agency reports, books, computer programs, trade magazines, and newspaper articles.

Dr. Kaiser has been president of the International Association for Great Lakes Research, a peer reviewer of numerous scientific papers for several journals, Editor-in-Chief of the Water Quality Research Journal of Canada for nearly a decade, and an adjunct professor. He has contributed to a variety of scientific projects and reports and has made many presentations at national and international conferences.

Dr. Kaiser is author of CONVENIENT MYTHS, the green revolution – perceptions, politics, and facts
convenientmyths.com

Dr. Kaiser can be reached at: mail@convenientmyths.com

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Mt. Sinabung linked to the Toba supervolcano – Video

Fri, 09/29/2017 - 13:25

Oregon State University researchers linked recent eruptions at Sumatra’s Mt. Sinabung to the last supervolcano eruption on Earth, which took place 74,000 years ago at the Toba Caldera some 25 miles away.

Lake Toba – Photo courtesy Shan de Silva

When Toba erupted, it emitted a volume of magma 28,000 times greater than that of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington state. It was so massive, it is thought to have created a volcanic winter on Earth lasting years, and possibly triggered a bottleneck in human evolution.

To qualify as a supervolcano, the eruption must reach at least magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index, which means the measured deposits for that eruption are greater than 1,000 cubic kilometers, or 240 cubic miles.

This short video explains how Lake Toba was formed.

“Supervolcanoes have lifetimes of millions of years during which there can be several supereruptions,” said Shanaka “Shan” de Silva, an Oregon State University volcanologist and co-author on the study. “Between those eruptions, they don’t die. Scientists have long suspected that eruptions continue after the initial eruption, but this is the first time we’ve been able to put accurate ages with those eruptions.”

The study also found that the magma in Toba’s system has an identical chemical fingerprint and zircon crystallization history to Mt. Sinabung, which is currently erupting and is distinct from other volcanoes in Sumatra. This suggests that the Toba system may be larger and more widespread than previously thought, de Silva noted.

“Our data suggest that the recent and ongoing eruptions of Mt. Sinabung are part of the Toba system’s recovery process from the supereruption,” he said.

The discovery of the connection does not suggest that the Toba Caldera is in danger of erupting on a catastrophic scale any time soon, the researchers emphasized. “This is probably ‘business as usual’ for a recovering supervolcano,” de Silva said.

“The hazards from a supervolcano don’t stop after the initial eruption,” de Silva said. “They change to more local and regional hazards from eruptions, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis that may continue regularly for several tens of thousands of years.

“Toba remains alive and active today.”

As large as the Toba eruption was, the reservoir of magma below the caldera is much, much greater, the researchers say. Studies at other calderas around Earth, such as Yellowstone, have estimated that there is between 10 and 50 times as much magma than is erupted during a supereruption.

Other well-known supervolcano sites include Yellowstone Park in the United States, Taupo Caldera in New Zealand, and Campi Flegrei in Italy.

Mucek and de Silva are affiliated with OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. The study was supported by the National Science Foundation.

The above info came from a news release issued by Oregon State University on May 16th of this year. See entire news release:
http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2017/may/new-study-documents-aftermath-supereruption-and-expands-size-toba-magma-system

Thanks to John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia, for this link

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Another volcano popping off – Entire Vanuatu island being evacuated

Thu, 09/28/2017 - 18:47

Fearing that a major eruption is imminent for at the Manaro volcano on Ambae island, the entire population of 11,000 is being evacuated.

The evacuees are being transported by boat or airlifted to other islands in Vanuatu. The process should take about a week.

Vanuatu is a South Pacific Ocean nation of roughly 80 islands that stretch some 800 miles (1,300 km).

“There’s ash, fire, stones and lava being thrown out from the mouth of the volcano,” Shadrack Welegtabit, the director of Vanuatu’s National Disaster Management Office, said Tuesday of the recent activity. “There’s a lot of activity going on.”

Welegtabit noted that it’s impossible to say whether there will be a major eruption, but it was better to be cautious.

https://weather.com/news/news/vanuatu-volcano-eruption-manaro-ambae

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41423856

https://apnews.com/e4749029dfff4268afebecda18404d4f/Vanuatu-orders-evacuation-of-island-with-rumbling-volcano?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-26/volcanic-eruption-forces-thousands-to-evacuate-island-in-vanuatu/8990922

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-27/vanuatus-monaro-volcano-threatens-to-erupt/8991582

Thanks to John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia, Mom2Kids and Deanron for these links

“The Earth is restless,” says John

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Russia – Frosts pose a danger to crops

Thu, 09/28/2017 - 17:55

“They  they are very likely to be damaged.”

Frosts were recorded last night in the Volga, Bryansk, Orel, and ‘Moscow’ regions. Also frostbite in the Rostov, Astrakhan, Volgograd and Stavropol regions.

A huge anticyclone retains its influence over most of the European territory of Russia.

Last night in the Nizhny Novgorod region, in Bashkortostan, frosts were observed to -5 degrees. In the Saratov region to -2, in the Penza – to -1, in the Perm region to -3.

On the night and early morning on September 28, frosts to -1 degrees were recorded in Bryansk and Orel regions, in the Moscow region in Tchurusti the temperature dropped to -1.7 degrees, in Kolomna and Egorievsk it was -0.4 degrees.

“(These frosts) pose a danger to agricultural crops, their damage is very likely.””

http://www.meteo-tv.ru/news/Kommentarii-sinoptika/O-zamorozkakh-na-evropeyskoy-territorii-/

Thanks to Martin Siebert for this link

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New Mexico snow

Thu, 09/28/2017 - 17:23

Over 30″ of snowfall forecast for the peaks of N. New Mexico starting last night.

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/North-Truchas-Peak/forecasts/3970

Sorry skiers. Looks like the forecast was overly optimistic.
Here’s a Taos Ski Valley webcam:
https://live1.brownrice.com/embed/tsvridge

Thanks to Jody Eldridge for these links

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More than 100,000 Bali residents flee to makeshift shelters

Thu, 09/28/2017 - 13:52

“Mount Agung eruption IMMINENT,” says headline. Incredibly, Bali’s tourism department issued a letter today reassuring travelers.

“The island is safe except for areas around Mount Agung. We urge tourists to continue visiting,” the letter said.

However, the number of people taking shelter in tents, school gyms, and government buildings in neighboring villages has surged.

“While there are plentiful stocks of food, water, medicines, and other supplies,” the Daily Mail reports, “evacuees fear they are in for a long wait that could disrupt their livelihoods.”

Farmers are worried that lava flows could destroy their homes and farms.

“Some people aren’t leaving because they need to work and they need their livestock,” said  Sean Powderly, a humanitarian worker in Bali.

“The pigs and the cows are like they’re security deposit, their bank account. If things go bad they sell their cows and pigs—a cow is worth like $AUD1,000.

According to officials, there are around 30,000 cattle within the danger zone around the volcano.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4928974/Rising-fear-volcanic-eruption-Bali-forces-100-000-flee-shelters.html

The Express says more than 130,000 have evacuated.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/859280/Bali-volcano-update-Mount-Agung-eruption-latest-seismic-graphs-news-maps-warnings-live

Thanks to Sony Porter for these links

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Indonesian volcano erupts

Wed, 09/27/2017 - 22:05

Sumatra’s deadly Mount Sinabung exploded early this afternoon, spewing ash 1½ miles (2.5 km) into the sky.

Thousands of villagers were evacuated from around the mountain and warned to stay at least 4.2 miles (7 km) away, the Daily Mail reports.

“Authorities feared lava flows could cascade down the mountain and destroy homes, as has happened several times.”

“Only last month another eruption rocked the area, blasting ash 2.4 miles (4.2km) into the air and causing pyroclastic flows many kilometres across surrounding countryside.”

The eruption stoked fears that a bigger eruption could occur on Bali’s Mount Agung, spewing much larger plumes of ash into the air.

See many, many photos:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4924872/Indonesian-volcano-Mount-Sinabung-explodes.html

More photos here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/10551746/Volcano-Mount-Sinabung-in-Sumatra-Indonesia-erupts-spewing-lava-and-ash.html

Video of the eruption was posted on Twitter by Aisyah Llewellyn, a freelance journalist in Indonesia.
See video here:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/indonesian-volcano-mount-sinabung-erupts-in-sumatra_2321215.html

Thanks to Sonya Porter for these links

 

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La Niña coming baaaaack – Skiers rejoice

Wed, 09/27/2017 - 13:12

NOAA: “There is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.”

“Over the last month, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean,” said NOAA in a press release dated 14 Sep 2017.

“The most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017.”

See entire press release:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Thanks to Bill Sellers for this link

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Utah – Heavy early-season snowfall closes roads – Video

Tue, 09/26/2017 - 17:44

Not something we see too often just two days into fall, says meteorologist.

Autumn cancelled – Straight to winter – Snowplows deployed

Heavy early-season snowfall forced closure of state Route 190 and Route 224 at Guardsman Pass, according to the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT).
.

UDOT also reported that state Route 224 just past Park City Hall in Summit County was closed along with Albion Basin Road, above Alta Ski Resort.

Officials in Alta reported 8 inches of snow on the ground in places.

Snow was on the ground Sunday morning in other places across northern Utah, including Bear Lake, Big Cottonwood Canyon and Parleys Canyon.

KSL’s meteorologists also warned that 4 to 8 inches of snow was expected on Sunday for the Wasatch Mountains from I-80 north.

https://www.ksl.com/?sid=45922111&nid=148

Thanks to Stephen Bird for this link

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Irma illusions – and realities

Tue, 09/26/2017 - 16:47

“Climate change has been ‘real’ throughout history.” – Paul Driessen
_________________________

“We went almost 12 years with no category 3-5 hurricanes hitting the United States – and climate alarmists were predictably silent,” writes Paul Driessen. “Then the lull predictably ended, and we got two big storms within weeks. (Unusual, but certainly not unprecedented.) The alarmists have been predictably vocal ever since, blaming Harvey and Irma on fossil fuels and carbon dioxide emissions.

“Here’s a little more science and history for thinking realists – and for alarmists who are prepared to replace ideology with a short course in climate and weather. “

 

________________________

Irma illusions – and realities

If human emissions made Irma worse, did they also bring the 12-year lull in Cat 4-5 hurricanes?

By Paul Driessen

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma brought out the best in us. Millions of Americans are giving money, toil and sweat to help victims rebuild. Unfortunately, the storms also highlighted some people’s baser instincts.

Some advanced ideological commitments to campaigns to “keep fossil fuels in the ground,” raise energy costs and reduce living standards. Others hyped Harvey’s record rainfalls, claiming carbon dioxide emissions made the Gulf of Mexico warmer and its air more moisture-laden. A few were just obnoxious.

These storms are a product of “this administration’s climate denial, racism and callousness,” 350.org activist Jenny Marienau fumed. “How many once-in-a-lifetime storms will it take, until everyone admits manmade climate change is real?!” Daily Show comedian Trevor Noah fulminated.

Perhaps these newly minted “experts” received mail-order degrees in climatology or meteorology – or recently stayed at a Holiday Inn Express. They should at least take a few minutes to review hurricane and climate history, and talk to real climatologists and meteorologists, before launching tirades.

My geology, ecology and other studies taught me that climate change has been “real” throughout history. I’ve learned to be humble, respectful and vigilant in the face of nature’s power; to recognize that climate shifts can range from beneficial or benign to harmful or unbelievably destructive; and to understand that the sun and other powerful natural forces totally dwarf whatever meager powers humans might muster to alter or control Earth’s climate and weather.

Harvey marked the end of a record 12-year absence of Category 3-5 hurricanes hitting the US mainland. The previous 8-year record was set 1860-1869. NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division counts ten Category 4-5 monsters 1920-1969 (50 years) hitting the USA, but only three 1970-2016 (46 years). This year has brought two more, and the hurricane season isn’t over yet.

If Harvey and Irma were caused or intensified by human greenhouse gas emissions, shouldn’t those gases be credited for the 12-year lull and half-century decline in Cat 4-5 landfalling storms? For Irma’s changed intensity and route as it reached Florida and headed north? Certainly not.

If fossil fuels caused Harvey’s rainfall, were previous deluges like Hurricane Easy (45 inches in Florida, 1950), Tropical Cyclone Amelia (48 inches in Texas, 1978) and Tropical Storm Claudette (a record 43 inches in 24 hours on Alvin, Texas, 1979) the result of lower fossil fuel use back then? Highly unlikely.

Indeed, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concludes that neither the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes, nor their energy level, has displayed any trend since 1950. Despite slightly warmer ocean waters in some regions, global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) levels in recent years have been at their lowest levels since the late 1970s.

When the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its cyclical positive phase, the tropics, west coast of North America and our Earth overall get warmer; cooling occurs during the PDO’s negative phase. The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also cycles between warm and cool phases, affecting regional and planetary temperatures, as well as hurricane formation, strength and duration.

Any link between hurricanes and human carbon dioxide/greenhouse gas emissions is nebulous, tenuous and very poorly understood at this time. Asserted links to recent hurricanes are ideological illusions.

Hurricane Irma remained symmetrical and grew in size and intensity into the massive Category 5 hurricane seen in satellite photos, because it remained over warm water for a week as it crossed the Atlantic and Caribbean – and was not pulled apart by mid-altitude wind sheer – weather experts explained. Its encounter with Cuba’s coastal lands and mountains finally reduced its wind speeds and disrupted its symmetry.

Over Florida, strong north-to-south winds high in the atmosphere clipped the top off the hurricane. That further disturbed Irma’s shape and intensity, and steered the storm westward as it traveled north up the Citrus State. As is usually the case with storms moving north over Florida and parallel to its west coast, Irma’s front wall began to pull in both drier air and upwelling water. The bigger the storm the more it does this, WeatherBELL Analytics chief forecaster Joe Bastardi explained.

All these factor combined to slow whirling winds in the storm’s eyewall still more. It began wobbling on its axis, and Irma gradually became a disorganized tropical storm after it pounded Fort Meyers.

As to Hurricane Harvey, consulting meteorologist Joe D’Aleo notes that “hurricanes entering Texas are almost always very wet and often stall or meander.” This year, a large cool trough trapped Harvey and kept it from moving inland, enabling the Gulf of Mexico to feed it trillions of gallons of water for days, said Bastardi. It was “an unusual confluence of events,” said Weather Channel founder John Coleman, “but it was certainly not unprecedented.”

If there was a “human factor” in Harvey and Irma, climate alarmists need to explain exactly where it was, how big it was and what role it played. They must present hard evidence to show that fossil fuels and carbon dioxide emissions played a significant role amid, and compared to, the hundreds of natural forces involved in these storms. Their loud rhetoric only highlights their failure and inability to do so.

In fact, the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are warm enough every summer to produce major hurricanes, says climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer. But you also need other conditions, whose origins and mechanisms are still unknown: pre-existing cyclonic circulation off the African coast, upper atmospheric calm, sea surface temperatures that change on a cyclical basis in various regions, to name just a few.

The combination of all these factors – plus weather fronts and land masses along the way – determines whether a hurricane arises, how strong it gets, how long it lasts, and what track it follows.

Damage from hurricanes has certainly increased over the years. But that is because far more people now live and work in far more expensive communities along America’s Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Since 1920, Greater Houston has grown from 138,000 people to 5.7 million; Miami from 43,000 to 6.1 million; Tampa from 50,000 to 3 million.

Meanwhile, death tolls have declined – at least in countries where fossil fuels, highways and modern technologies enable us to construct stronger buildings, track storms, warn, evacuate and rescue people, and bring in water, food, clothing, and materials to rebuild power lines and buildings in stricken areas.

Over 6,000 people perished in the 1900 Category 4 Galveston Hurricane, 2,500 in the 1928 Okeechobee, Florida Category 4 hurricane and storm surge. More than 1,800 died in Katrina (Category 3), due largely to corrupt and incompetent local and state governments.

Thanks to better preparation, warning and evacuation, overall tragic deaths were kept to 82 from Harvey and 93 from Irma. Incredibly, despite the vicious 185-mph winds that reduced most of Anguilla and Barbuda to rubble, Irma killed only one person on those Caribbean islands.

Even in recent years, cyclones and hurricanes have brought far more death and destruction to poor nations where modern energy and technology are still limited or nonexistent: 400,000 dead in Bangladesh in 1970, 138,000 in Myanmar in 2008, and 19,000 from Hurricane Mitch in Central America in 1998.

It may be fashionable to focus on alleged “social costs of carbon” and asserted fossil fuel contributions to extreme weather events. But it is essential that we never forget the enormous benefits these fuels bring.

Our Earth is a complex, wondrous, resilient planet. But it can unleash incredible fury. Wealthy, technologically advanced nations fueled by oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear power are far better able to avoid, survive and recover from those disasters. We must count our blessings, but always be prepared.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org), and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death and other books on the environment.

 

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Bali eruption could cool the globe

Tue, 09/26/2017 - 16:32

Signs are now pointing to an imminent eruption of Bali’s Mount Agung.

Whether it’s hours away, or weeks, when that eruption finally comes it could trigger a cooling effect on the Earth.

Scientists expect such a cooling because it has happened before – and not all that long ago.

When Mount Agung last erupted in 1963, it spewed vast amounts of ash and sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere.

The sulphur dioxide then reacted with water vapor in the air to form a haze of sulphuric acid.

That haze lead to a drop in global atmospheric temperatures of 0.1-0.4 degrees Celsius, according to Richard Arculus, an Emeritus Professor in geology at the Australian National University.

That may not sound like much, but when you consider that global temperatures were only 5C cooler than now during the last ice age, you can understand the significance of such a decline.

Now imagine what would happen to global temperatures if several large volcanoes should begin erupting all at once.

Thanks to David Newton in Melbourne, Australia, for this info.

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Record cold in Western Siberia

Tue, 09/26/2017 - 13:47

Breaks record set more than 60 years ago.

26 Sep 2017 – A new record low temperature was registered in Omsk today.

The mercury plummeted to -6.2 degrees C, breaking the previous record for the date of -4.5C, which was set more than 60 years ago in 1955.

Temperatures in the area are abnormally cold, running 5-10 degrees C below the climatic norm.

http://www.meteo-tv.ru/news/Kommentarii-sinoptika/Na-Urale-i-v-Sibiri-chuvstvuetsya-priblizhenie-zimy/

http://hmn.ru/index.php?index=1&ts=170926110001

Thanks to Matin Siebert for these links

“Looks like it started the cold record season,” says Martin.

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