question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

IceAgeNow

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The next ice age could begin any day
Updated: 18 min 57 sec ago

I like how this guy Horist writes

Sat, 10/28/2017 - 06:03
Here’s an excerpt:

“Many swamp drainers hold their noses at much of the President’s outrageous tweets and statements, too many of which are difficult if not impossible to defend.  They do so because they see Justice Gorsuch on the high court and the many other conservatives heading to the federal benches across the nation. While the press  waxes ineloquently over the President’s peeing contest with outgoing senators, he and the Republicans in Congress are creating jobs, tightening our borders, rolling back suffocating regulations, reining in the unbridled power of the bureaucracy, ending the generational do-nothing diplomacy over North Korea, Iran and even China, and the list goes on.  The crashing sound you hear is the crumbling of the political palace constructed by and for the establishment elite.  That is well worth a little nose holding.”

The entire article, entitled “HORIST: Fighting for the soul of America,” is here:
http://punchingbagpost.com/horist-fighting-for-the-soul-of-america/

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Global warming has become a new religion, says physicist – Video

Fri, 10/27/2017 - 17:18

“Global Warming is Pseudoscience,” says physicist. And not just your “ordinary” physicist. Professor Ivar Giaever, the 1973 Nobel Prizewinner for Physics, warns that although it is very rare, some science is fraudulent. “Some people cheat in science on purpose.”

Gore and Pachauri accepting Nobel Peace prize.

 

Dr Rajendra Pachauri – Would you trust this man with your daughter?

Giaever thinks it’s quite interesting that the famous ‘scientist’ Al Gore received a Nobel Prize along with Ragendra Pachauri, one-time chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“I am ashamed that the Norwegian government did that,” says Giaever.

Prior to his ascension within the IPCC, Pachauri was a railroad engineer.

The temperature has gone up .8 degrees since 1860, says Giaever. “Point 8 degrees is what they’re discussing.”

“Point 8 degrees. If you ask people in general what they’re discussing, they think it’s 4 or 5 degrees. They don’t know it’s so little. It’s not even fever.”

But Giaever doesn’t think it’s even possible to measure that.

“In the 1889s thermometers were place in various places,” says Gaiever. “In 1900 they were moved. In 1950 they were moved. In 2000 they were moved. How can you figure the average temperature of the earth? I don’t think that’s possible.”

By the way, Pachauri stepped down from his post after sexual harassment allegations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXxHfb66ZgM

Thanks to Jim Kahlke for this link

The post Global warming has become a new religion, says physicist – Video appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Snow alert for Britain

Thu, 10/26/2017 - 19:04

Thundersnow possible as Arctic plunge smashes UK

Met forecaster says temperatures could dip to -4C (24.8F) in rural regions overnight into Monday with much of the country likely to wake to frost.

Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said stormy conditions clashing with freezing air could trigger “thundersnow” in the north.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/871076/UK-snow-forecast-weather-latest-Met-Office-thundersnow-BBC-weather

Thanks to Don Brown for this link

The post Snow alert for Britain appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Pushing “climate change” to distract attention

Thu, 10/26/2017 - 16:31

A “conspiracy theory” that the Gov knows very well that the next ice age is on the way.

Pushing “climate change” to distract attention

When confidence in a good future begins to fall apart, everything else will fall apart
By Ray Kraft

The US Government isn’t as stupid as it looks. For a long time the EPA had a chart up showing constant climate change during the last 10,000 years, but the Trump administration took it off line.

I have a “conspiracy theory” that the Gov knows very well that the next ice age is on the way, it just doesn’t know when, how soon, how quickly, so it pushes the “global warming / climate change” deal to distract attention, to keep people believing in the future, if we can “do something” about global warming (like going to renewable energy) we can maintain confidence.

When confidence in a good future begins to fall apart, everything else will fall apart.

If the climate is warming because of fossil fuels, we need to go to renewables to stop climate change, goes the story.

But if the next Ice Age is coming, we need to go to renewables because oil and gas are finite energy sources, they won’t last forever, they probably won’t last (at current production levels) more than a few decades.

If the human species as we know it is to survive the next Ice Age, its survivable will depend on solar and wind energy, and nuclear and hydrogen.

My guess is that by the end of the next Ice Age the small and scattered surviving tribes of humans will be foragers, hunters, gatherers, nomads, again, as they were before the last Ice Age.

There will be legends of a magical time in the distant past when there were wagons and chariots that moved themselves, without horses, and machines that flew in the sky with people in them!

And the people of 100,000 years from now will know these are just fantasies, myths, legends, campfire stories, bedtime stories, fairy tales, that such things are impossible.

The post Pushing “climate change” to distract attention appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Potential record lows for southern US this weekend

Thu, 10/26/2017 - 13:45

Freezing temperatures as far south at Birmingham, Alabama. We’re talking about the Deep South here!

Little Rock, Arkansas, could see temperatures dip into the 30s on Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings, says Accuweather.com.

By Sunday morning, the mercury could plunge to 30 degrees (-1.1C) as far south as Dallas, Nashville, Atlanta, and Montgomery, Alabama.

We’re talking about the Deep South here! In October!

These low temperatures could challenge the record books in some areas, Accuweather warns.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/freezing-air-to-sweep-into-southern-us-this-weekend-prior-to-chilling-east-coast/70003104

Thanks to Glenn Cuthbert for this link

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Warmth is no Worry but Cold Kills

Thu, 10/26/2017 - 12:58

“It is lethal global cooling we need to fear, not life-sustaining global warming.” – Viv Forbes
_____________

Warmth is no Worry but Cold Kills

Failed crops and famine stalked Europe, Asia and America
By Viv Forbes 
– 26 Oct 2017

It was ice, not global warming, that killed and entombed millions of mammoths and woolly rhinos in Siberia and Alaska.

It was unrelenting cold and then ice, not global warming, that forced the Vikings out of Greenland.

It was bitter winters, not heat waves, that finally defeated the armies of Napoleon and Hitler in Russia. George Washington’s army also suffered from an unusually bitter winter at Valley Forge in 1778, in the depths of the Little Ice Age.

Snowy blizzards periodically kill more cattle than heatwaves in Colorado, South Dakota and Texas.

When the Tambora volcano exploded in 1816 it spewed massive volumes of ash and “greenhouse” gases including carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. There was no global warming from the greenhouse gases, but the heat-blocking ash-filled atmosphere and a quiet sun caused “the year without a summer”. Failed crops and famine stalked Europe, Asia and America.

It is icebergs, not warm oceans, that sink ships like the Titanic, and spreading sea ice trapped “The Ship of Fools” in Antarctica.

Every major geological era has ended with massive volcanism on land and under the seas. Molten lava heats the seas and eruptions on land fill the atmosphere with dust which blocks incoming solar energy. There is rapid evaporation from the warm seas followed by rapid condensation in the cold dark atmosphere. This process dumps massive snowfalls which become ice sheets on land, starting a new ice age and bringing the extinction of many species.

It is lethal global cooling we need to fear, not life-sustaining global warming.

 

The post Warmth is no Worry but Cold Kills appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Snowfall in Fort St. John shatters records set in the 1930s

Wed, 10/25/2017 - 15:28

“Residents are shovelling, the city is plowing, the power is out, postal service is halted, and school buses are cancelled,” says Alaska Highway News.

“Tuesday’s snowfall shattered daily snowfall records dating back to the 1930s.”

A total of 55 cm fell on Tuesday and into early Wednesday, with 23 cm of that amount falling on Tuesday.

“That much snow hasn’t fallen on Oct. 24 since 1933, when 15.2 centimetres was recorded here.

“Another 32 centimetres has fallen so far today — just shy of a record 35.6 centimetres set in 1918.”

Thousands of customers are without power in Fort St. John, Dawson Creek, Chetwynd, Hudson’s Hope, and Taylor.

http://www.alaskahighwaynews.ca/regional-news/tuesday-snowfall-a-record-breaker-1.23074435

Thanks to Glenn Cuthbert for this link

The post Snowfall in Fort St. John shatters records set in the 1930s appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Almost 2 ft of snow for Fort St. John, BC

Wed, 10/25/2017 - 15:11

9:15 a.m. Wednesday 25 October 2017
Weather summary for British Columbia by Environment Canada

Lots of wet snow in Fort St. John, B.C.

Summary of Tuesday night snowfall in cm:

Fort St. John Airport: 55 cm (21.7″)
73 Mile Highway Station: 42 cm (16.5″)
Chetwynd: 15 cm (5.9″)
Dawson Creek: 20-30 cm (7.9″ to 11.8″)
Braden Road Highway Station: 22 cm (8.7″)

 

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/weathersummaries_e.html

Thanks to Terry Homeniuk for this link

The post Almost 2 ft of snow for Fort St. John, BC appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Temps to drop 62 degrees in 30 hours

Wed, 10/25/2017 - 14:56

It is 81 degrees F (27 C) in Denver as I write this. But forecasts call for the mercury to plunge to 19 degrees (-7 C) by early Friday – a 62-degree drop in just 30 hours.
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Oh, there’s also a chance of snow.

Good luck Denver!

Latest Forecast: 60 Degree Temperature Drop & Snow In Store Tomorrow

Thanks to Dean Kohler for this link

The post Temps to drop 62 degrees in 30 hours appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Heavy snowfall closes Swiss alpine passes

Wed, 10/25/2017 - 13:29

 

Up to 20 inches (50 cm) of snow fell in parts of Switzerland over the weekend, with the snow line dropping to around 1,000 m (3,280 ft) on Monday morning.

Snowfall was at its deepest in the east of the country, said MeteoNews. The snow forced closure of many alpine passes on Monday, including the Susten, Grimsel, Fluela, Furka, St Gotthard and San Bernardino.

Alpine passes close as snow strikes Switzerland; up to 50cms (nearly 20 inches) falls

Thanks to Stephen Bird for this link

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A reversion to Ice Age conditions will be the real climate catastrophe

Wed, 10/25/2017 - 13:19

And since it has been getting progressively colder for the past 8,000 years…

______________________

A reversion to Ice Age conditions will be the real climate catastrophe

Our current, warm, congenial Holocene interglacial has been the enabler of mankind’s civilisation for the last 10,000 years, spanning from mankind’s earliest farming to recent technology.

By Ed Hoskins

Each of the notable high points in the current Holocene temperature record, (Holocene Climate Optimum – Minoan – Roman – Medieval – Modern), have been progressively colder than the previous high point.

. . .

. . .

According to ice core records, the last millennium 1000AD – 2000AD has been the coldest millennium of our current Holocene interglacial.

The ice core record from Greenland for its first 7-8000 years, the early Holocene, shows, virtually flat temperatures, an average drop of only ~0.007 °C per millennium, including its high point known as the “climate optimum”.*

But the more recent Holocene, since a “tipping point” at around 1000BC, 3000 years ago, has seen temperature fall at about 20 times that earlier rate at about 0.14 °C per millennium .

The Holocene interglacial is already 10 – 11,000 years old and judging from the length of previous interglacial periods, the Holocene epoch should be drawing to its close: in this century, the next century or this millennium.

Nonetheless, the slight beneficial warming at the end of the 20th century to a Modern high point has been transmuted by Climate alarmists into the “Great Man-made Global Warming Scare”.

The recent warming since the end of the Little Ice Age has been wholly beneficial when compared to the devastating impacts arising from the relatively minor cooling of the Little Ice Age, which include:

• Decolonisation of Greenland

• Black death

• French revolution promoted by crop failures and famine

• Failures of the Inca and Angkor Wat civilisations

• etc., etc.

As global temperatures, after a short spurt at the end of the last century, have already been showing stagnation or cooling over the last nineteen years or more, the world should now fear the real and detrimental effects of cooling, rather than being hysterical about limited, beneficial or probably now non-existent further warming.

Warmer times are times of success and prosperity for man-kind and for the biosphere. For example during the Roman warm period the climate was warmer and wetter so that the Northern Sahara was the breadbasket of the Roman empire.

But the coming end of the present Holocene interglacial will eventually again result in a mile high ice sheet over much of the Northern hemisphere.

As the Holocene epoch is already about 11,000 years old, the reversion to a true ice age is becoming overdue.

That reversion to Ice Age conditions will be the real climate catastrophe.

See more:
https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2015/06/01/the-holocene-context-for-anthropogenic-global-warming-2/

____________________
* Note from Ed Hoskins:
Other published Greenland Ice Core records as well as GISP2, (NGRIP1, GRIP) corroborate this finding. They also exhibit the same pattern of a prolonged relatively stable early Holocene period followed by a subsequent much more rapid decline in the more recent past.

The post A reversion to Ice Age conditions will be the real climate catastrophe appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Far, far warmer than today during the Eemian Period

Tue, 10/24/2017 - 16:55

So much for unprecedented global warming
____________________

Far, far warmer than today during the Eemian Period

So much for unprecedented global warming
By J. H. Walker

Cool and wet has reduced the garden output for this year by about 30% after our (U.K.) cool wet windy summer from July to October. Yet the Climate Police will once again claim it’s the warmest on record since records began in 1970!!!

It was far, far warmer during the Eemian Interglacial, with out any SUVs, coal electricity-generating system, with humans confined to Africa and the rest of the minuscule CO2 human-induced climate change activities not yet under way. At least they didn’t have Loonies like Gore adding to the heat values.

According to Wikipedia, at the peak of the Eemian, the Northern Hemisphere winters were generally warmer and wetter than now, though some areas were actually slightly cooler than today. The hippopotamus was distributed as far north as the rivers Rhine and Thames.[4] Trees grew as far north as southern Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: currently, the northern limit is further south at Kuujjuaq in northern Quebec. Coastal Alaska was warm enough during the summer due to reduced sea ice in the Arctic Ocean to allow Saint Lawrence Island (now tundra) to have boreal forest, although inadequate precipitation caused a reduction in the forest cover in interior Alaska and Yukon Territory despite warmer conditions.[5] The prairie-forest boundary in the Great Plains of the United States lay further west near Lubbock, Texas, whereas the current boundary is near Dallas, Texas. The period closed as temperatures steadily fell to conditions cooler and drier than the present, with 468-year-long aridity pulse in central Europe 116 000 BC,[6] and by 112 000 BC, a glacial period had returned.

As it will here in a not far away time frame.

________________

The Eemian Period (also called the last interglacial, began about 130,000 years ago and ended about 115,000 years ago.

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France – Worst wine harvest since 1945

Tue, 10/24/2017 - 13:59

BBC says global wine production will hit a 50 year low this year – blames ‘extreme weather’ for the drastic decline.

______________

The BBC today reported that global wine production will hit a 50 year low this year,” says reader Ptolemy2. “The reason given is ‘extreme weather’ but they don’t say what kind of extreme weather. That’s because the reason is spring cold and late frosts this year. They are downplaying that politically incorrect cold weather story.”

Here are estimates of the drops in wine production by country:

•  Italian production will fall 23% to 39.3 million hectolitres.

•  French production will drop 19% to 36.7 million hectolitres … its worst harvest since 1945.

•  Spanish production will be 15% lower at 33.5 million hectolitres.

•  A hectolitre is 100 litres, equivalent to about 133 standard 750mL bottles.

The BBC may blame ‘extreme weather,’ but back in August the French agriculture minister presented a more honest picture, saying that the losses were “mainly attributable to the severe spring frost.”

Bitter cold struck twice within a week in April, ravaging fragile shoots and buds.

Switzerland, Austria, Germany and Hungary also experienced hard frosts this year, and were worried that wine harvests could fall by 30%, even up to 60% in some areas.

I think Ptolomy2 is seeing clearly. I also worry that people will be blind-sided by the coming cold and snow.

https://www.iceagenow.info/france-worst-wine-grape-harvest-since-1945/

The post France – Worst wine harvest since 1945 appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Climate change could lead to civil unrest

Mon, 10/23/2017 - 13:04

New study worries about the effects of global warming, ignores global cooling.

“Experts reveal the devastating effect multiple crop failures could have,” warns the Daily Mail. 

“Climate change is expected to generate heat waves and drought that could cause crop losses in most of the world’s breadbaskets,” the article continues.

Our planet’s top five major breadbaskets, China, the United States, India, Brazil and Russia, produce most of the staple crops – corn, wheat and rice – that feed the world.

Historically, when a crop failed in one of these breadbaskets, only nearby areas had to contend with shortages and rising prices, but today, production failures can have far-reaching impacts.

In the past several decades, many of the world’s major breadbaskets have experienced shocks – such as regional droughts and heat waves – that caused large, rapid drops in food production, which lead to substantial spikes in food prices.

Unfortunately, “there is increasing evidence that in very poor countries, food price increases and shortages can lead to civil unrest and worsen other social and political stresses.”

I find it incredible that they would be worried about global warming leading to crop losses, while ignoring the devastating effects of global cooling.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4574166/Experts-reveal-effect-multiple-crop-failures.html

Thanks to David Grissim for this link

The post Climate change could lead to civil unrest appeared first on Ice Age Now.

Largest October freeze in South Brazil in 20 years

Mon, 10/23/2017 - 12:14

Car windshields covered by a frost crust that was difficult to scrape.

The city of São Joaquim, on top of Serra da Serra Catarinense, recorded a strong frost in much of its territory on Monday morning (Oct 23) leaving the fields white and covered by a dense layer of ice.

It was the largest recorded October frost of the last 20 years in São Joaquim.

According to Climaterra, the lowest temperatures recorded in São Joaquim were -3.2º in the Cruzeiro Valley, -2.6ºC in the Caminhos da Neve Station.

In Cruzeiro was the largest frost in more than 20 years, in the oldest station, with -3.0°C and -8.4°C in turf, a record.

In Epagri, today record low of -1.4 ° C.

http://saojoaquimonline.com.br/climaterra/2017/10/23/a-maior-geada-de-outubro-dos-ultimos-20-anos-e-registrada-em-sao-joaquim/

Source:
https://twitter.com/Climaterra
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMxZaxuW4AAw_pa.jpg:large

Thanks to Martin Siebert for these links

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Snowfall warnings for parts of central Nunavut

Mon, 10/23/2017 - 11:10

21 Oct 2017 – An intense low pressure system tracking through Manitoba today is expected to bring deteriorating conditions to areas of the Kivalliq starting Saturday morning. In Baker Lake the snow will begin Saturday morning, and will at times be heavy. The snowfall will be accompanied by strong southeasterly winds with gusts up to 70 km/h (43.5 mph).

Snowfall accumulations of 15 to 30 cm (5.9″ to 11.8″) expected in Baker Lake starting Saturday morning and through Sunday.

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?nu2#190344237751139035201710200501ww1373cwnt

Snowfall warning also in effect for Naujaat region

Snowfall, with total amounts of 15 to 25 cm (5.9″ to 9.8″) expected.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?nu5#625063021097924849201710210501ww1373cwnt

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html

Thanks to Terry Homeniuk for these links

The post Snowfall warnings for parts of central Nunavut appeared first on Ice Age Now.

NOAA – La Nina likely

Sun, 10/22/2017 - 17:51

Coming winter likely to be cooler and wetter than usual in parts of northern U.S. – Drier and warmer in the South.
.

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19 Oct 2017 – Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released the U.S. Winter Outlook today, with La Nina potentially emerging for the second year in a row as the biggest wildcard in how this year’s winter will shape up. La Nina has a 55- to 65-percent chance of developing before winter sets in.

“If La Nina conditions develop, we predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived, but it could still shape the character of the upcoming winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above average precipitation and colder than average temperatures along the Northern Tier of the U.S. and below normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South.”

The 2017 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Precipitation

  • Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across most of the northern United States, extending from the northern Rockies, to the eastern Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, in Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

  • Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S.

Temperature

  • Warmer-than-normal conditions are most likely across the southern two-thirds of the continental U.S., along the East Coast, across Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

  • Below-average temperatures are favored along the Northern Tier of the country from Minnesota to the Pacific Northwest and in southeastern Alaska.

  • The rest of the country falls into the equal chance category, which means they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation because there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds.

Drought

  • Despite the outlook favoring above-average precipitation this winter, drought is likely to persist in parts of the northern Plains, although improvement is anticipated farther West.

  • Elsewhere, drought could develop across scattered areas of the South, mainly in regions that missed the rainfall associated with the active 2017 hurricane season.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/noaa-releases-winter-outlook-forecast-says-la-nina-likely/ar-AAtJCPa?li=BBnb7Kz

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DC Swamp denizens strike back

Sun, 10/22/2017 - 17:19

“Climate chaos due to human emissions of (plant-fertilizing) carbon dioxide exists almost entirely in computer models and data manipulation – not in planetary reality.” – Paul Driessen
(Unfortunately, the swamp denizens won this round.)

_______________________

“It looks like the Swamp Denizens won a big one – at least for the moment,” says Paul Driessen. “Under intense pressure from Chuck Grassley and other corn belt senators, the White House and EPA have backed down on plans to reduce biodiesel mandates for the next year. We are IMPORTING the vast bulk of our biodiesel – but these Members of Congress still claim reduced quotas will mean fewer US jobs somewhere in the US biofuel industry … somehow. (They don’t mention that failure to back Big Biofuel to the hilt could also cost them in campaign contributions – but I do mention that salient fact in my article.)”

 

_______________________

DC Swamp denizens strike back

Senators and crony corporatists deep-six proposed EPA reductions in biodiesel mandates

By Paul Driessen

Despite what I thought were persuasive articles over the years (here, here and here, for example), corn ethanol and other biofuel mandates remain embedded in US law. As we have learned, once a government program is created, it becomes virtually impossible to eliminate, revise or even trim fat from it.

This year, it looked like this “rule of perpetuity” might finally change. The Trump-Pruitt Environmental Protection Agency proposed to use its “waiver authority” to reduce its 2018 biodiesel requirement by 15% (315 million gallons) and (possibly) lower the 2019 total down to the 1-billion-gallon minimum mandated by Congress. The proposed action would not affect corn or other ethanol production and blending requirements, despite growing problems with incorporating more ethanol into gasoline.

The biodiesel proposal reflects hard realities. Biodiesel costs over $1.30 more than regular diesel made from petroleum. Despite this far higher cost, it gets fewer miles per gallon than conventional diesel. Domestic US producers are unable to make enough biodiesel. In fact their output is at least 250 million gallons below the mandated amount; the rest is imported, keeping America reliant on foreign suppliers.

Some analyses conclude that domestic biodiesel output is actually one billion gallons below what the mandate explicitly and in reality requires. So the USA is truly reliant on imports to meet the quota.

Since biodiesel is made from soybean, palm, canola, flax, sunflower and other plant oils, those crops must be grown on millions of acres of land, using enormous amounts of water, fertilizer, pesticides and energy. (Biodiesel can also be made from waste vegetable oil and animal fat, but those are in minuscule supply.)

The demand for biodiesel is down. Volkswagen’s fraudulent emissions tampering reduced demand for diesel-powered cars, and more people are driving electric and hybrid vehicles. Fraud is also rampant over Renewable Identification Numbers that must be issued for every gallon of biodiesel produced and sold.

Moreover, the primary justifications for biodiesel (and all biofuels) are missing in action. Fracking and other technologies have ended worries about imminent depletion of petroleum supplies, and a growing body of evidence shows that climate chaos due to human emissions of (plant-fertilizing) carbon dioxide exists almost entirely in computer models and data manipulation – not in planetary reality.

Finally, foreign production often generates more social and environmental problems than biodiesel. Oil palm development in Indonesia, for example, causes deforestation, soil erosion, water and air pollution, habitat and wildlife losses, and social unrest. Plantation owners, investors and employees do well; some become very wealthy. Others, especially traditional landowners, suffer from reduced incomes and land use rights, takings of cropland they relied on for survival, rising land prices and other conflicts.

In addition, like any carbon-based fuel, biodiesel emits carbon dioxide when it is burned. In fact, over the entire life cycle of growing and harvesting crops, turning them into fuel, transporting and using them in vehicles, ethanol and biodiesel emit as much CO2 as petroleum – and require infinitely more acreage.

Logic and common sense fall by the wayside

However, anyone who thinks reality, logic and common sense do or should play an essential role in public policy decisions has an abysmal understanding of how the Washington, DC Swamp operates. Programs, mandates and subsidies beget vocal beneficiaries, industries, lobbyists, and crony corporatist arrangements between them and elected representatives – who receive dinners, trips and campaign contributions in exchange for votes that perpetuate programs, mandates, subsidies and electoral success.

No sooner had EPA announced its intended biodiesel reductions, than the Swamp Denizens rose up in righteous wrath and united indignity. Several US Senators threatened to block confirmation of President Trump’s EPA nominees, unless the agency abandons its plans. Confronted with this reality, EPA caved. The biodiesel quotas remain, and will increase even further. The DC Swamp won – this round.

It’s pretty easy to understand why Illinois Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth would battle EPA over biodiesel. Hers is a farm state, with a lot of Big Biofuel farmers and distillers, and her party has become solidly anti-hydrocarbon and anti-Trump. These days, Democrats line up largely in lockstep in opposition to domestic drilling, pipelines and refineries – though hardly on any personal actions to reduce fossil fuel use in their homes, offices, vehicles or especially air travel.

However, biofuel advocacy and confirmation blocking has become bipartisan. Senator Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) is leading the charge. The powerful Republican chairs the Judiciary Committee and serves on the Agriculture, Budget, Finance and Tax Committees.  He was once a self-proclaimed “pig farmer,” but these days he and his family are mostly involved in growing corn for ethanol and soybeans for biodiesel.

Indeed, the Grassley family together collected $1.4 million in farm subsidies between 1995 and 2014.

Even Senator Joni Ernst (also R-Iowa) is on the nominee blockade bandwagon. She may have been raised on a pig farm and learned how to drain swamps, kill pork and make special interests squeal. (Recall the famous campaign ad.) But she is also on the Ag Committee, and Iowa is the corn state. Indeed, corn grown on acreage equivalent to her entire state (36 million acres) is converted to ethanol every year.

These senators (and many House and Senate colleagues) are determined that ethanol, biodiesel and other biofuel mandates and “targets” will always and only go in one direction: upward.

They are all convinced that any change, no matter how small or how focused on foreign imports of biodiesel, is a potential threat to the entire biofuel program, including their beloved corn ethanol program. (Even worse, the EPA proposal could threaten their future campaign coffers and reelection prospects.)

They’ve promised to “oppose any effort” to reduce blending levels for ethanol in gasoline or “undermine the integrity” of biofuel programs. They threatened to “vote down” the President’s EPA nominees, unless the agency totally scrubbed its plan to reduce biodiesel mandates and imports. They claim these actions are necessary to protect energy innovation, fuel diversity and jobs. Some still talk about biofuel preventing petroleum depletion and dangerous manmade climate change.

Perhaps they are all smoking that special tobacco product they sell in Boulder, Colorado. But they have powerful positions and powerful friends, and they mean business. So the EPA and White House capitulated.

Renewable Fuels Standards (RFS) a vital campaign contributions program

The Renewable Fuels Standards (RFS) legislation began as an environmental program. But it has become a major farm subsidy program – and a vital campaign contributions program. It distorts markets by creating cash flows that people depend on for their livelihoods, lifestyles and lobbying fees.

In the case of ethanol, it involves growing corn that requires millions of acres of land, billions of gallons of water, and vast quantities of pesticides, fertilizers, tractor fuel and natural gas … to produce energy that drives up food prices, damages small engines, and gets one-third fewer miles per gallon than gasoline.

With biodiesel, we have congressionally mandated production levels that are unnecessary and unrealistic. They are far above what farmers have shown they can grow and produce here in the USA. The mandates are also well above the amounts of biodiesel we need. And yet the laws require that production from biodiesel, corn ethanol and advanced biofuels (from switchgrass, et cetera) climbs steadily year after year.

For once we have some people at EPA who might – and should – look into all of this, and implement practical, defensible reductions in these domestic and foreign biofuel levels. We should not saddle them with more politically driven mandates that hurt the environment and American consumers.

But we did. The Washington Swamp won. That’s how it operates. However, the battle is not over. It has merely been joined. Next time around, there may not be critical nominees to hold hostage.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org), and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death and other books on public policy.

 

 

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“Dangerously cold air” to grip the Canadian Prairies this winter

Fri, 10/20/2017 - 14:48

Thanks to La Niña, Accuweather predicts a snow-filled winter for much of eastern Canada, including some of the country’s most populated cities.

Accuweather predicts “Dangerously cold air” for the Canadian prairies.

“Compared to last winter, the upcoming winter is expected to be colder from the eastern Prairies to Quebec,” said AccuWeather Canadian Weather Expert Brett Anderson.

See entire forecast:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/canada-winter-forecast-snowstorms-to-frequent-ontario-quebec-dangerously-cold-air-to-grip-the-prairies/70002988

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“Eppur si muove”

Fri, 10/20/2017 - 14:35

“And yet, it moves.” (How to deliver unprecedented power to politicians, bureaucrats, and activists.)

________________

I think this comment by By TomOMason deserves repeating

“Eppur si muove”

“And yet, it moves.”

Thus muttered Galileo Galilei under his breath, after being forced by the Inquisition to recant his claim that the Earth orbited the Sun, rather than what was the ‘settled’ theology of the day — the universe circled earth. The public vindication, and scientific verification of Copernican heliocentric views would have to wait for more enlightened times.

Today, the well known story of Galileo is an example that illustrates the dangers of both unchecked power and decreeing scientific matters ‘settled’. However, throughout history, Galileo types of observation (of the mechanics of nature) have often caused dispute between those moneyed power brokers and the rational, scientific, observers.

Understand that ‘settled science’ is often used to spur the public to act. No matter how deranged, no matter that this Anthropogenic Global Warming/Climate Change ‘theory’ is still unproven, the public needs to remember that science is not a set of undisputed and indisputable facts but at best, just a series of approximation. And the public needs to remember that these approximations can never be complete or 100% accurate.

And exactly what is the ‘settled science’ of cataclysmic ‘AGW /Climate Change’ trying to convince us to do? Deliver unprecedented power to politicians, bureaucrats, and activists, and for individuals to lose freedoms, choice, rights and responsibilities, and of course, our wealth.

 

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